Arka Sokak Kahve

Arka Sokak Kahve is planned as a non-alcoholic specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul. The founder's differentiator, in their own words (Turkish): “Moda'nın arka sokağında 12 koltuklu, filtre kahve ve ev yapımı kek”

The difference does not yet show in the numbers: ticket, food cost and payroll all sit inside the district band. A real difference has to appear in either price or cost — if it appears in neither, the claim is undefended in front of an investor.

Capacity is 12 indoor + 4 outdoor seats, 11 hours a day, 30 days a month. Theoretical seat turns 5.5/day; mature occupancy 54% (FIZIBI assumption).

Monthly rent is ₺55,000 (founder estimate, no property selected; private landlord, with 20% withholding the cost to the business is ₺68,750); 1,375 ₺ per m², 12% below the district benchmark.

Rent and service charges are 12% of mature net revenue: acceptable but tight. Rent can rise at most 1% before payback exceeds 36 months. Rent escalates at lease anniversaries by the 12-month average CPI.

Competitors within walking distance

No competitors were entered: this report names not one competing venue and not one competing price. The project's ₺240 average ticket is compared against the district band with no real menu price beside it. One line per venue can be added from the Location section of the answers.

Industry benchmarks

Revenue is built bottom-up: seats × turns × occupancy × average ticket × days. The opening ramp uses the slow (first venture) profile: month 1 at 40% of mature occupancy, 100% by month 12.

Seasonality profile “city centre”; Ramadan is modelled as a 15% daytime dip. Menu prices are repriced every 3 months while costs move monthly, so the lag squeezes gross margin.

The season spread is the plan: in year 2 the busiest month is October (97 customers a day) against January (59). The off-season burns ₺0 of cash, which has to be set aside before it starts, because fixed costs still need 66 customers a day through it.

Monthly net revenue (36 months)

Revenue is stated in year-2 nominal prices: the ₺240 ticket entered becomes ₺316 by year 2 at the menu price index (1.32x). Multiplying daily customers by the entered ticket will fall short by that factor.

Investment budget: fit-out ₺962k, equipment ₺606k, furniture ₺356k, POS/IT ₺134k; licences and incorporation ₺167k, signage and brand ₺200k.

Pre-opening costs ₺445k (marketing, training payroll, rent during fit-out, opening stock), deposit ₺165k, working capital ₺1.04m (4 months of fixed costs), input VAT on CAPEX ₺463k (recovered by month 21) and a 10% contingency of ₺206k.

Investment per seat ₺183k (industry reference ₺189k), per m² ₺73,229. FX reference: $101,049 / €86,484 (2026-09-01 rate).

Staffing is 1 people plus the founder (full-time on site, ₺55,171/month owner's draw). Opening-month employer cost ₺128k/month; employer cost is 1.33x gross (social security, unemployment, meals, transport, severance accrual), with January minimum-wage steps (2027: 27%, 2028: 21%, 2029: 17%) applied.

Mature-year cost structure: food & beverage 25%, labor 24%, rent and charges 12%. Prime cost 49% — healthy.

The marketing budget is 3% of revenue, ₺20,705 a month in the mature year. That buys neighbourhood-targeted social ads, an opening-week push, visibility on maps and review platforms, a loyalty card and local partnerships. The first 90 days need their own plan — the ₺223k pre-opening budget spent on the surrounding businesses and offices is the cheapest way to bring in the first 40 customers a day. Retention matters as much as acquisition: bringing a customer back once a month costs less than finding a new one.

Mature-year (year 2) cost structure

Staffing plan

Roster at opening-month wages; year-2 monthly payroll after the January minimum-wage steps: ₺165,159 (24%).

EBITDA turns positive from month 7. After full funding, cumulative cash bottoms out at ₺1.05m in month 5; the working-capital reserve covers the trough.

Simple payback 49 months. 10-year NPV at 40% nominal is −₺1.21m; project IRR 30% nominal, 13% real. Terminal value ₺1.41m (year-10 book value + deposit + working capital).

Supply and cash cycle: stock sits 12 days, card takings land 1 days later, and supplier terms are modelled at 30 days. The net cycle is about 17 days negative — customers pay before suppliers do, so growth does not tie up more working capital — but only once supplier terms actually reach 30 days. Supplier terms are earned, not granted — the first months are cash on delivery, which is what the 4-month working-capital reserve (₺1.04m) is for.

This cash statement assumes the unraised ₺3.60m is in place. On committed money alone the low point is −₺2.55m.

Cumulative cash position (net of the total investment)

The curve starts where the money goes out: month 0 sits ₺4.80m below zero. The month it crosses the zero line is the month the investment is back. Dashed lines: pessimistic and optimistic scenarios.

Pessimistic case (ticket −10%, occupancy −15%, slow ramp, COGS +2 pts, first rent renewal +6 pts): year-2 EBITDA margin -4%, payback not within 120 months, additional funding need ₺0.

Stress case (pessimistic + inflation 30/26/22%, mid-year wage hike 15%, fit-out +15%, commission +3 pts): additional funding need ₺3.23m, year-2 EBITDA margin -25%. Optimistic case: payback 27 months, NPV ₺3.68m.

Sensitivity: year-1 net profit is driven most by menu price, occupancy, labor cost (each moved on its own). The first alone moves it by ₺879k.

Stress case: pessimistic plus high inflation, a mid-year wage hike and a fit-out overrun (additional).

Sensitivity: year-1 net profit (each driver moved on its own)

Ticket × occupancy: payback (months)

Rows are menu price, columns are occupancy; '—' means beyond the payback threshold. Ingredient cost per order is held at the planned menu, so a price move is a margin move and a volume move is not.

Founder experience: The founder is a first-time F&B operator; the learning curve hits cost and quality in the first six months. Mitigation: Hire an experienced chef or manager before opening; check references; find an advisor.

Demand below plan: Break-even needs 66 customers/day; the plan is 80. Safety margin 18%. Mitigation: Pre-opening footfall count, three competitor menu checks, soft opening, 90-day marketing budget.

Wage inflation and turnover: Labor is 24% of revenue. January minimum-wage steps (est. 27%, 21%) and a possible mid-year hike hit margin directly. Mitigation: Reprice the menu with wage steps; cross-train staff; shift planning.

Total funding need ₺4.80m: equity ₺1.20m (25%), unfunded gap ₺3.60m.

The plan does not close as designed: closing the gap needs more equity, a longer-tenor loan (with a DSCR check) or equipment leasing.

Where the money comes from

Unfunded gap: ₺3,599,845. Equity and the loan do not cover the total need. Options: more equity, a longer-tenor loan (with a DSCR check) or equipment leasing.

Use of funds

Converted at a fixed reference rate (2026-09-01: 1 € = 55.5000 ₺, 1 $ = 47.5000 ₺); this is not an FX forecast. TRY figures are nominal; the currency equivalents are a rough scale for opening-year purchasing power.

Opening timeline (typical 16 weeks)

1. Weeks 1–2Lease, title-deed and licence eligibility check
2. Weeks 2–3Company setup, tax plate, chamber registration
3. Weeks 3–11Architectural project, fit-out and installations
4. Weeks 8–12Equipment procurement and installation
5. Weeks 9–14Licence application, fire report, food registration
6. Weeks 12–15Hiring, hygiene certificates, social security, training
7. Weeks 15–16Soft opening and launch marketing

Plain-language versions of the terms used in the report and deck. When an investor or banker asks about one, answer from here.

Revenue (net sales)

What is left of everything that goes through the till once VAT is taken out. Every ratio in this report is measured against this net figure.

EBITDA

Sales minus ingredients, payroll, rent and other running costs, before loan interest, tax and depreciation: what the venue earns on its own.

COGS (cost of goods sold)

What the ingredients inside what you sell cost you. As a share of sales it is one of the most-watched numbers: 40 ₺ of ingredients in a 150 ₺ coffee = 27%.

Gross profit

Sales minus the cost of ingredients. Payroll, rent and other costs have not been taken out yet.

Payroll (gross + social security)

The gross wage paid to staff plus what the employer pays on top: social security and unemployment contributions, meals, transport and severance accrual. FIZIBI costs a roster at 1.33× the gross wage.

Rent + service charge

Monthly rent, the service charge on shared areas and withholding tax where it applies. In F&B you want this under 10% of sales.

Other operating costs

Everything outside ingredients, payroll and rent: energy, water, maintenance, cleaning, consumables, card fees, marketing, accounting.

Profit before tax

The profit left once everything but tax is deducted; corporation tax is calculated on this figure.

Net profit

What is left after every cost, depreciation, loan interest and tax. The figure the owners actually earn.

Prime cost

Ingredients plus payroll as a share of sales. The single most-watched F&B number; above 65% is a danger sign.

Contribution margin

What one sale leaves behind once the costs tied to that sale — ingredients, commission, packaging — are paid, to cover rent and wages.

Average ticket

What one customer spends on average. Multiplied by customers per day it gives daily sales.

Break-even

The point where you neither win nor lose: how many customers a day (or how much revenue a month) covers all costs.

Break-even safety margin

How far the planned customer count sits above break-even. 20% means you still don't lose money if customers drop by a fifth.

Cash trough

The lowest point the cash balance reaches over 36 months. Negative means you must find money that month; positive means the plan funds itself.

Month cash runs out

The month the till hits zero if no more money goes in. Blank means the cash never runs out.

Free cash flow

The difference between cash in and cash out in a month, loan and investment payments included. Not profit — the cash actually left in hand.

Net operating cash

The cash the business generates from trading day to day, before investment spending and loan principal.

Payback

Months until the money you put in has come back to the till. Healthy small venues: 18-36 months.

IRR (internal rate of return)

The investment's yearly percentage return, read like a deposit rate. 'Nominal' includes inflation, 'real' strips it out. The hurdle (40%) is the minimum expected for an investment of this risk in Turkey. It is computed over the ten years of cash flow the model runs.

NPV (net present value)

The ten years the model runs, discounted to today's money at 40%, minus the investment. Positive means the venture beats the hurdle.

DSCR (debt service coverage ratio)

Yearly earnings divided by yearly loan installments. Banks want at least 1.3: 130 ₺ earned for every 100 ₺ of installments.

Investor multiple (MOIC)

What the investor gets back over ten years divided by what they put in. 2x means the money doubled.

Cash-on-cash return

A year's cash return divided by the money you put in. 50% means you took back half your investment that year.

Nominal / real

A nominal figure includes inflation; a real one strips it out. A 66% nominal return with 30% inflation is roughly 28% in real terms.

Discount rate

The yearly rate used to turn future money into today's value; it includes inflation and risk. FIZIBI uses 40% nominal.

Terminal value

What the business still holds at the end of year ten, where the model stops: the deposit and cash reserve that come back, any recoverable VAT credit, less the loan still outstanding. You can add book value, or a sale price at an EBITDA multiple, on top.

Dividend yield

The profit paid out to shareholders as a share of what they put in. This is the part that leaves the company as cash; a 15% withholding comes off on distribution, and the report's figure is after it.

Post-money / pre-money valuation

If an investor pays 2.5m ₺ for 30%, the whole company is valued at 8.33m ₺ (post-money); minus the investment that is pre-money (5.83m ₺).

Equity

The founders' and partners' own money in the business. Unlike a loan it is never repaid — it buys a share of the company.

Working capital

The cash reserve that pays rent, wages and bills after opening until sales settle; usually 3-6 months of fixed costs.

Contingency

A cushion on the fit-out and equipment budget; something always costs more than planned. The model adds 10% by default, and you can raise it.

Rent deposit

Usually two to three months' rent left with the landlord as security. You get it back on leaving, but it ties up cash at opening.

Key money / takeover fee

A lump sum paid to the outgoing tenant or the landlord to take over the premises, on top of rent. You do not get it back.

Fit-out

All the building work that turns an empty unit into a working venue: floors, walls, plumbing, electrics, ventilation. The biggest budget line and the one that slips most.

MEP (mechanical, electrical, plumbing)

Ventilation, extraction, water, drainage and the electrical board. In a cafe this approaches a third of the fit-out budget, and it is the most expensive thing to add later.

Fiscal cash register / kitchen display

ÖKC is the legally required fiscal cash register; KDS is the screen that puts orders in front of the kitchen. Both connect to the POS.

Franchise fee and royalty

The lump sum paid up front to trade under a brand, and the regular cut of sales (royalty) paid afterwards.

Depreciation

Spreading the cost of fit-out and equipment over the years it is used instead of expensing it at once. Not a cash outflow.

Withholding tax (rent)

20% paid to the state on top of net rent when the landlord is a private person. A net rent of 100,000 ₺ costs you 125,000 ₺.

VAT (carried forward / recoverable)

VAT is 10% on food-service sales and 20% on alcohol. VAT paid on fit-out and equipment is offset against the VAT you collect on sales; in the first months you hold a VAT credit that melts over time.

BSMV (banking transaction tax)

A 5% tax on the interest of a commercial loan; KKDF is not charged on commercial credit. Multiply the bank's quoted rate by 1.05: 45% becomes 47.25%.

REVPASH

Revenue per available seat hour: how hard each seat works.

Occupancy

How full the seats are on average through the day. 60% occupancy times seat turns gives customers per day.

Seat turns

How many different customers one seat would take in a day if it were never empty: 5-6 in a coffee shop, 2-3 in a restaurant. Multiplied by occupancy to get the actual count.

Full-time equivalent (FTE)

Two part-timers count as one full-timer. Rosters are counted this way.

Mature (year / occupancy)

The settled state once the opening ramp is over, usually year 2. Figures marked 'mature' describe this period.

Opening ramp

The months after opening while customer numbers climb to their settled level. The first year looks weak because of it.

Card fee

The bank's cut on every card sale. The model uses 2.5%, and assumes 85% of non-delivery sales are paid by card. Cash sales carry none.

Delivery commission

The cut delivery platforms take on every order: 22-33% by platform, and the model uses a blended 30%. Packaging and in-app advertising (about 5% of delivery sales) come on top.

Sensitivity (tornado) analysis

Bars showing how much the result moves when each input is nudged 10% on its own; the longest bar is the assumption to watch.

Base / pessimistic / optimistic / stress case

The same plan run on different assumptions: base is what you expect, pessimistic is sales coming in low, and stress adds an inflation and cost shock on top.

Industry benchmark

The average for comparable venues in the same concept and area. A compass to compare your plan against, not a rule.

Feasibility score

A weighted average of payback, return, safety margin, rent ratio, prime cost, funding and risk, out of 100. It does not make the decision — it tells you where to look.

KGF guarantee

A state guarantee fund that stands surety for the bank so new businesses without collateral can borrow.

KOSGEB entrepreneur support

Grants for new businesses (setup and performance support) and an interest-free equipment loan; applied for after the company exists, approval takes 3-6 months.