Feasibility reportSample

Arka Sokak Kahve

Specialty coffee · Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul · 40 m² · 12 seats · Opening 2027-03

Verdict · Not feasible as designed

Arka Sokak Kahve: not feasible as designed (16/100). The investment does not come back within 120 months; rent is 17% of sales, ingredients + payroll 59%; covering costs takes 65 customers a day against 57 planned (14% short).

Narrative bound to the numbers

Attention

• Rent exceeds 15% of estimated revenue; considered risky in the industry.
• Equity + loan do not cover the total need; the difference is shown as an unfunded gap; additional equity, debt or an investor is needed.
• Payback exceeds 36 months.

Total investment

₺4.78m

120 mo+

Year-2 margin

-2.2%

17.4%

Executive summary

Overall assessment

Strong

Normal

Weak

General comment

Reading the first year, the 10-year average operating result and the investment return indicators together, the current assumptions do not generate cash that repays the investment; the project does not look sustainable as designed until the payroll ratio and other operating costs are reworked.

YEAR 1	10-YEAR AVERAGE ·	Executive comment
₺3.45m40 customers a day · ₺264 realised avg. ticket (incl. VAT) · revenue is net of VAT	₺10.1m / year10-year average	At 57 customers a day and a ₺316 average ticket (in year-2 prices), year 2 net revenue is ₺5.89m. Against the location, 40 m², 12 seats and 54% expected , the revenue assumption looks conservative (monthly sales per m² are 58% below the industry reference). The 10-year average is nominal: most of the gap over year 1 is the price level, not real growth.
₺887k · 25.7%	₺2.56m · 25.4%10-year average	In year 2 is 25.5% of revenue. Against the 25.0% industry reference for comparable specialty coffee concepts this is in line, and over 10 years the ratio holds steady.
₺1.65m · 47.7%2 people	₺3.57m · 35.3%10-year average	In year 2 payroll is 33.6% of revenue with 2 people planned. Against the 24%–30% industry band this is high, and over 10 years the ratio improves.
₺1.14m · 33.1%	₺2.70m · 26.7%10-year average	Other operating costs — energy, maintenance, cleaning, consumables, card and and marketing — are 25.7% of revenue, which is high for this concept, and over 10 years the ratio improves. Energy, maintenance, marketing and consumables should be reviewed line by line to challenge the fixed cost load.
₺825k · 23.9%	₺1.78m · 17.6%10-year average	Rent and service charges are 17.4% of revenue, which is high against the revenue the plan expects to generate, and over 10 years the ratio improves.
−₺1.05m · -30.5%	−₺506k · -5.0%10-year average	The margin is -2.2% in year 2 (-30.5% in year 1, -5.0% on the 10-year average). Its path from the first year to the long-run average shows the operation strengthening; reading the revenue and operating cost assumptions together, the profitability level is insufficient.
−₺808k	−₺411k / year10-year average	The venue generates −₺808k of in year 1 and −₺411k a year on average over 10 years. After debt service and replacement capex the horizon generates −₺4.95m in total, 0.0x the ₺4.78m invested. Long-run cash generation is limited for the financial sustainability of the investment.
10 yr+not repaid within the horizon	10 yr+discounted at 40%	The ₺4.78m investment does not come back within the 10-year model horizon, which is long for an investment of this size and the it generates.
—nominal	—real · hurdle 40%	The cash-flow series changes sign more than once, so no single IRR fits it; the modified (MIRR) is 12% against a 40% hurdle. Read together with the size of the investment, the period and the operating risks, the expected return is low.

Investment performance

TOTAL INVESTMENT

₺4.78m

Initial investment

PERIOD

10 yr+

Long

—

Low

10-YEAR TOTAL CASH GENERATED

−₺4.95m

; −₺2.09m in opening-year lira

Overall conclusion

WEAK — The project generates ₺3.45m of revenue at a -30.5% margin in year 1, reaching an average of ₺10.1m and -5.0% over 10 years. The revenue assumption and the ratio look positive, while the payroll ratio, other operating costs, the rent burden, the EBITDA margin, generation, the period and the return () need to be watched closely. On a 12% MIRR and a payback beyond 10 years, the investment is in need of reworking.

A 40 m², 12-seat specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul needs a total investment of ₺4.78m: ₺2.06m in fit-out, equipment and furniture and ₺1.04m as a working-capital reserve (4 months of fixed costs).

At maturity (year 2) an average of 57 customers a day at an average ticket of ₺240 produce ₺5.89m of net revenue with a -2% margin. The first year stays at -30% because of the opening .

needs 65 customers a day, a of -14%. (ticket −10%, −15%, slow ) is not reached within 120 months and ₺3.05m of additional funding is needed; optimistic 58 months.

Equity of ₺1.20m cover 25% of the need; ₺3.58m remains an unfunded gap and the plan does not close as designed.

Score components

· 20%>120 mo
8
Return vs hurdle · 15%NPV/investment -122%
0
· 15%-14%
0
cost ratio · 10%17%
24
· 10%59%
84
Funding structure · 10%gap ₺3.6m
5
Downside resilience · 15%pessimistic >120 mo
0
Structural risk · 5%65/100
65

Recommendations

What pulls the score down most is the return on the money (against leaving it in the bank) (0/100). Fix this first.
The money you have covers 25% of the need; ₺3.58m is missing. Options: a smaller or fitted takeover space, a partner, family money or a longer-tenor loan.
The result moves most with menu price; validate this figure with real observations and quotes.
Rent-to-revenue is above 15%: without a smaller space, a side street or a rent negotiation this plan will struggle in front of investors.

Concept and target customer

Arka Sokak Kahve is planned as a non-alcoholic specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul. The founder's differentiator, in their own words (Turkish): “Moda'nın arka sokağında 12 koltuklu, filtre kahve ve ev yapımı kek”

Where that difference shows up in the plan: payroll runs 25% above reference, i.e. a heavier service roster. An investor or a bank will test it against competitor prices; the competitor list in chapter 3 is the evidence for it.

Capacity is 12 indoor + 4 outdoor seats, 11 hours a day, 30 days a month. Theoretical 5.5/day; mature 54% (FIZIBI assumption).

Young professionals (25-40)Remote workersNeighbourhood residents

Location and market

Monthly rent is ₺55,000 (founder estimate, no property selected; private landlord, with 20% withholding the cost to the business is ₺68,750); 1,375 ₺ per m², 12% below the district .

Rent and service charges are 17% of mature net revenue: risky; the first number investors will challenge. There is no rent headroom because the base case does not pay back within 36 months. Rent escalates at lease anniversaries by the 12-month average CPI.

Competitors within walking distance

This step was skipped

No competitors were entered: this report names no competing venue and no competing price. The project's average ticket therefore stands alone — measured against the district band, with no real menu price beside it.

What to add, one line per venue: name · what they charge for your core item · roughly how many seats · when they are busy. It can still be added from the Location section of the feasibility answers, and this block fills in as soon as it is.

This project's average ticket

₺240

Per customer, incl. VAT

Industry benchmarks

Metric	Your plan	Industry / district	Deviation
(₺/m²/month)	₺1,375	₺1,559	-12%
(incl. )	₺240	₺301	-20%
Investment per seat	₺181,891	₺189,304	-4%
Monthly sales per m²	₺9,318	₺22,271	-58%
%	25.5%	25.0%	+2%
Labor % of	33.6%	27.0%	+25%
-to-	17.4%	10.0%	+74%
	59.1%	60.0%	-1%
	53.8%	65.0%	-17%

Menu and unit economics

Item	Dine-in (avg. )
Gross price (incl. )	₺310
	−₺28
Net price	₺282
	−₺73
	−₺7
	₺202 (72%)

Channel mix: dine-in 70%, takeaway 30%, no delivery.

Capacity and revenue model

Revenue is built bottom-up: seats × turns × × average ticket × days. The opening uses the slow (first venture) profile: month 1 at 40% of mature occupancy, 100% by month 12.

Seasonality profile “city centre”; Ramadan is modelled as a 15% daytime dip. Menu prices are repriced every 3 months while costs move monthly, so the lag squeezes gross margin.

The season spread is the plan: in year 2 the busiest month is October (69 customers a day) against January (42). The off-season burns ₺0 of cash, which has to be set aside before it starts, because fixed costs still need 65 customers a day through it.

Monthly net revenue (36 months)

Customers/day ()

53%

₺124

Sales / m² / month

₺12,280

Revenue is stated in year-2 nominal prices: the ₺240 ticket entered becomes ₺316 by year 2 at the menu price index (1.32x). Multiplying daily customers by the entered ticket will fall short by that factor.

Investment budget

Investment budget: fit-out ₺962k, equipment ₺606k, furniture ₺356k, /IT ₺134k; licences and incorporation ₺167k, signage and brand ₺200k.

Pre-opening costs ₺427k (marketing, training payroll, rent during fit-out, opening stock), ₺165k, ₺1.04m (4 months of fixed costs), input on CAPEX ₺463k (recovered by month 31) and a 10% of ₺206k.

Investment per seat ₺182k (industry reference ₺189k), per m² ₺72,756. FX reference: $100,652 / €86,143 (2026-09-01 rate).

22%

20%

13%

10%

reserve₺1.04m22%
and construction (incl. , ventilation)₺962k20%
Kitchen / bar equipment₺606k13%
Input on CAPEX (recoverable)₺463k10%
Furniture and decor₺356k7%
Launch marketing₺223k5%
₺206k4%
Signage, branding, menus₺200k4%
Licences, permits and incorporation₺167k3%
₺165k3%
, cash register, and IT₺134k3%
Pre-opening and training₺88,4752%
during ₺68,7501%
Architect and project fees₺57,7271%
Opening inventory₺46,6601%

Item	Amount	Share
and construction (incl. , ventilation)	₺962,120	20.1%
Kitchen / bar equipment	₺606,379	12.7%
Furniture and decor	₺356,336	7.5%
, cash register, and IT	₺133,626	2.8%
Architect and project fees	₺57,727	1.2%
Signage, branding, menus	₺200,440	4.2%
Licences, permits and incorporation	₺167,033	3.5%
Launch marketing	₺222,711	4.7%
Pre-opening and training	₺88,475	1.9%
during	₺68,750	1.4%
Opening inventory	₺46,660	1.0%
	₺165,000	3.5%
reserve	₺1,036,517	21.7%
Input on CAPEX (recoverable)	₺463,326	9.7%
	₺205,846	4.3%
Total investment	₺4,780,946	100%

Operating costs

Staffing is 1 people plus the founder (full-time on site, ₺55,171/month owner's draw). Opening-month employer cost ₺128k/month; employer cost is 1.33x gross (social security, unemployment, meals, transport, severance accrual), with January minimum-wage steps (2027: 27%, 2028: 21%, 2029: 17%) applied.

Mature-year cost structure: food & beverage 25%, labor 34%, rent and charges 17%. 59% — healthy.

The marketing budget is 3% of revenue, ₺14,736 a month in the mature year. That buys neighbourhood-targeted social ads, an opening-week push, visibility on maps and review platforms, a loyalty card and local partnerships. The first 90 days need their own plan — the ₺223k pre-opening budget spent on the surrounding businesses and offices is the cheapest way to bring in the first 28 customers a day. Retention matters as much as acquisition: bringing a customer back once a month costs less than finding a new one.

Mature-year (year 2) cost structure

₺125k · 25%
Labor (gross + )
₺165k · 34%
+ charges
₺85,250 · 17%
₺0 · 0%
Utilities
₺20,586 · 4%
Marketing
₺14,736 · 3%
₺91,108 · 19%

Staffing plan

Role	Headcount	Gross / month each (opening month)	Employer cost each	Total employer cost / month
Barista	1	₺54,533	₺72,528	₺72,528
Founder (on site)	1	₺55,171	₺55,171	₺55,171
Total (opening month)	2			₺127,699

Roster at opening-month wages; year-2 monthly payroll after the January minimum-wage steps: ₺165,159 (34%).

36-month P&L

Line	Year 1	Year 2	Year 3
(excl. )	₺3,449,508	₺5,894,449	₺6,869,352
	−₺886,862	−₺1,502,275	−₺1,740,886
	₺2,562,64674%	₺4,392,17475%	₺5,128,46775%
Labor (gross + )	−₺1,646,093	−₺1,981,912	−₺2,301,594
+ charges	−₺825,000	−₺1,023,000	−₺1,207,140
	₺0	₺0	₺0
	−₺1,142,462	−₺1,517,157	−₺1,772,402
	−₺1,050,909-30%	−₺129,895-2%	−₺152,670-2%
	−₺418,373	−₺418,373	−₺418,373
Interest (incl. )	₺0	₺0	₺0
	−₺1,510,240	−₺597,671	−₺628,235
Tax (indicative)	₺0	₺0	₺0
	−₺1,510,240-44%	−₺597,671-10%	−₺628,235-9%

Assumptions: CPI 24%/18%/14%; January minimum-wage steps 2027: 27%, 2028: 21%, 2029: 17%; rent escalates at lease anniversaries by 24%/18%/14%; discount rate 40% nominal; prices as of 2026-09-01, indexed to the opening month. The tax line is indicative, after loss carry-forward.

Show monthly table

Month	Customers	Net		Labor		Other			Cash
1 · Mar 2027	565	₺123k	₺31,110	₺129k	₺68,750	₺76,377	−₺182k	−₺127k	₺1.12m
2 · Apr 2027	700	₺153k	₺39,260	₺130k	₺68,750	₺80,579	−₺166k	−₺137k	₺978k
3 · May 2027	1032	₺225k	₺58,949	₺131k	₺68,750	₺89,172	−₺122k	−₺77,803	₺900k
4 · Jun 2027	1140	₺263k	₺66,290	₺132k	₺68,750	₺88,960	−₺93,250	−₺86,302	₺814k
5 · Jul 2027	1172	₺270k	₺69,360	₺133k	₺68,750	₺90,827	−₺91,981	−₺86,491	₺727k
6 · Aug 2027	1241	₺286k	₺74,796	₺134k	₺68,750	₺93,429	−₺85,133	−₺77,704	₺650k
7 · Sept 2027	1489	₺362k	₺91,343	₺135k	₺68,750	₺101k	−₺34,341	−₺16,697	₺633k
8 · Oct 2027	1665	₺405k	₺104k	₺136k	₺68,750	₺106k	−₺10,132	₺8,937	₺642k
9 · Nov 2027	1397	₺339k	₺88,824	₺137k	₺68,750	₺102k	−₺57,369	−₺56,809	₺585k
10 · Dec 2027	1534	₺393k	₺99,296	₺139k	₺68,750	₺108k	−₺20,941	−₺4,884	₺580k
11 · Jan 2028	1276	₺327k	₺84,088	₺155k	₺68,750	₺104k	−₺84,337	−₺85,205	₺495k
12 · Feb 2028	1185	₺304k	₺79,535	₺156k	₺68,750	₺103k	−₺104k	−₺102k	₺393k
13 · Mar 2028	1476	₺399k	₺100k	₺157k	₺85,250	₺112k	−₺55,597	−₺35,357	₺358k
14 · Apr 2028	1522	₺412k	₺105k	₺158k	₺85,250	₺114k	−₺50,931	−₺37,355	₺321k
15 · May 2028	1985	₺537k	₺139k	₺159k	₺85,250	₺126k	₺28,226	₺64,656	₺385k
16 · Jun 2028	1966	₺554k	₺139k	₺160k	₺85,250	₺128k	₺41,317	₺62,342	₺448k
17 · Jul 2028	1831	₺516k	₺132k	₺161k	₺85,250	₺127k	₺11,909	₺26,484	₺474k
18 · Aug 2028	1773	₺500k	₺129k	₺162k	₺85,250	₺126k	−₺2,940	₺12,600	₺487k
19 · Sept 2028	1985	₺583k	₺147k	₺163k	₺85,250	₺134k	₺53,936	₺84,312	₺571k
20 · Oct 2028	2082	₺612k	₺156k	₺164k	₺85,250	₺138k	₺68,366	₺97,189	₺668k
21 · Nov 2028	1644	₺483k	₺125k	₺165k	₺85,250	₺129k	−₺21,163	−₺21,486	₺647k
22 · Dec 2028	1704	₺522k	₺131k	₺166k	₺85,250	₺133k	₺5,887	₺25,623	₺672k
23 · Jan 2029	1264	₺387k	₺98,669	₺182k	₺85,250	₺124k	−₺103k	−₺111k	₺561k
24 · Feb 2029	1267	₺388k	₺100k	₺183k	₺85,250	₺125k	−₺106k	−₺98,591	₺462k
25 · Mar 2029	1476	₺471k	₺118k	₺184k	₺101k	₺133k	−₺64,817	−₺44,443	₺418k
26 · Apr 2029	1522	₺486k	₺123k	₺185k	₺101k	₺135k	−₺58,440	−₺42,915	₺375k
27 · May 2029	1985	₺634k	₺162k	₺186k	₺101k	₺149k	₺36,176	₺78,575	₺453k
28 · Jun 2029	1966	₺649k	₺163k	₺187k	₺101k	₺151k	₺47,467	₺71,589	₺525k
29 · Jul 2029	1831	₺604k	₺153k	₺188k	₺101k	₺148k	₺13,996	₺30,521	₺556k
30 · Aug 2029	1773	₺585k	₺150k	₺189k	₺101k	₺148k	−₺2,429	₺15,312	₺571k
31 · Sept 2029	1985	₺677k	₺170k	₺190k	₺101k	₺157k	₺59,936	₺91,990	₺663k
32 · Oct 2029	2082	₺710k	₺180k	₺191k	₺101k	₺161k	₺77,756	₺79,210	₺742k
33 · Nov 2029	1644	₺560k	₺144k	₺192k	₺101k	₺150k	−₺25,325	−₺46,128	₺696k
34 · Dec 2029	1704	₺600k	₺151k	₺193k	₺101k	₺154k	₺2,334	₺1,542	₺697k
35 · Jan 2030	1191	₺419k	₺106k	₺208k	₺101k	₺141k	−₺136k	−₺161k	₺537k
36 · Feb 2030	1348	₺475k	₺122k	₺209k	₺101k	₺146k	−₺103k	−₺99,396	₺437k

Cash flow and break-even

turns positive from month 15. After full funding, cumulative cash bottoms out at ₺321k in month 14; the working-capital reserve covers the trough.

Simple exceeds 120 months. 10-year at 40% nominal is −₺5.83m; project cannot be computed nominal. ₺0 (year-10 book value + + ).

Supply and cash cycle: stock sits 12 days, card takings land 1 days later, and supplier terms are modelled at 30 days. The net cycle is about 17 days negative — customers pay before suppliers do, so growth does not tie up more — but only once supplier terms actually reach 30 days. Supplier terms are earned, not granted — the first months are cash on delivery, which is what the 4-month working-capital reserve (₺1.04m) is for.

This cash statement assumes the unraised ₺3.58m is in place. On committed money alone the low point is −₺3.26m.

Cumulative cash position (net of the total investment)

The curve starts where the money goes out: month 0 sits ₺4.78m below zero. The month it crosses the zero line is the month the investment is back. Dashed lines: pessimistic and optimistic scenarios.

Break-even · year-2 average

Customers/day needed: 65
Planned: 57
Season: 65 / 65
Off-season: 65 / 49
Cash (excl. and loan principal): 59
: 69%
: -14%
First positive month: 15

Season and off-season are split on year 2's own volume; each is compared against its own planned customers.

Returns

Simple: 120 mo+
: 120 mo+
(excl. refundable lines): 120 mo+
(after full funding): ₺321k · month 14
(10 years): −₺3.71m · month 120
(10 years, 40%): −₺5.83m
Project (unlevered, ): —
Project (): —
MIRR (modified ): 12%
(10 years): -1.04x
Year-2: 1%
: ₺0

Scenarios and sensitivity

case (ticket −10%, −15%, slow , +2 pts, first rent renewal +6 pts): year-2 margin -29%, not within 120 months, additional funding need ₺3.05m ( in month 10).

Stress case ( + inflation 30/26/22%, mid-year wage hike 15%, fit-out +15%, commission +3 pts): additional funding need ₺6.16m, year-2 margin -58%. Optimistic case: 58 months, −₺1.34m.

: year-1 net profit is driven most by menu price, , labor cost (each moved on its own). The first alone moves it by ₺632k.

Metric		Base
Year-1 net	₺2.64m	₺3.45m	₺5.25m	₺2.25m
Year-2 net	₺4.51m	₺5.89m	₺6.73m	₺4.02m
Year-2	−₺1.33m	−₺130k	₺775k	−₺2.32m
Year-2 margin	-29.5%	-2.2%	11.5%	-57.8%
Year-1	−₺2.18m	−₺1.51m	−₺96,661	−₺2.80m
(months)	—	—	58	—
	−₺9.79m	−₺5.83m	−₺1.34m	−₺14.0m
Additional funding need	₺3.05m	₺0	₺0	₺6.16m
Month	10	—	—	8
month	—	15	3	—

Stress case: pessimistic plus high inflation, a mid-year wage hike and a fit-out overrun (additional).

Sensitivity: year-1 net profit (each driver moved on its own)

Base year-1 : −₺1.51m

Menu price (±10%)−₺1.83m
−₺1.19m
(±10%)−₺1.74m
−₺1.28m
(±10%)−₺1.67m
−₺1.35m
% (±3 pts)−₺1.62m
−₺1.40m
(±10%)−₺1.59m
−₺1.43m
& equipment (±10%)−₺1.55m
−₺1.47m
Inflation (±6 pts)−₺1.51m
−₺1.51m

Ticket × occupancy: payback (months)

↓ ticket / occupancy →	-20%	-10%	0%	+10%	+20%
-20%	—	—	—	—	—
-10%	—	—	—	—	—
0%	—	—	—	—	79
+10%	—	—	118	66	51
+20%	—	106	63	45	39

Rows are menu price, columns are occupancy; '—' means beyond the payback threshold. Ingredient cost per order is held at the planned menu, so a price move is a margin move and a volume move is not.

Breaking points

no payback within 36 months in the base case

Risks and mitigations

Founder experience: The founder is a first-time F&B operator; the learning curve hits cost and quality in the first six months. Mitigation: Hire an experienced chef or manager before opening; check references; find an advisor.

Rent level and lease terms: No place yet; rent is the district average and equals 17% of mature-year sales. A real offer moves this ratio either way. Mitigation: 5+5 year lease with renewal option, licence-conditional break clause, registered lease annotation; rent in TRY.

Demand below plan: needs 65 customers/day; the plan is 57. -14%. Mitigation: Pre-opening footfall count, three competitor menu checks, soft opening, 90-day marketing budget.

Operations / People

Founder experience

Likelihood 5Impact 420

The founder is a first-time F&B operator; the learning curve hits cost and quality in the first six months.

Mitigation: Hire an experienced chef or manager before opening; check references; find an advisor. · Early warning: Staff turnover, waste %, customer complaints

Location / Lease

Rent level and lease terms

Likelihood 4Impact 520

No place yet; rent is the district average and equals 17% of mature-year sales. A real offer moves this ratio either way.

Mitigation: 5+5 year lease with renewal option, licence-conditional break clause, registered lease annotation; rent in TRY. · Early warning: Rent-to-revenue > 15%

Demand / Market

Demand below plan

Likelihood 4Impact 416

needs 65 customers/day; the plan is 57. -14%.

Mitigation: Pre-opening footfall count, three competitor menu checks, soft opening, 90-day marketing budget. · Early warning: 4-week rolling customers/day (incl. takeaway and delivery)

Operations / People

Wage inflation and turnover

Likelihood 4Impact 312

Labor is 34% of revenue. January minimum-wage steps (est. 27%, 21%) and a possible mid-year hike hit margin directly.

Mitigation: Reprice the menu with wage steps; cross-train staff; shift planning. · Early warning: Labor % > 35%

Supply / Cost

Food inflation and repricing lag

Likelihood 4Impact 312

Costs move monthly while the menu reprices every 3 months; each extra 10 points of inflation costs ~1.2 points of gross margin.

Mitigation: Monthly cost tracking, supplier terms, quarterly repricing, focused menu. · Early warning: % > target +3 pts

Location / Lease

Landlord security beyond the deposit

Likelihood 4Impact 312

Commercial landlords routinely ask for security beyond the — promissory notes, a bank guarantee letter or a personal surety, often several months' rent; for a new venture it is the norm. That amount is not in the investment budget.

Mitigation: Settle the type and amount of security in writing before signing; budget the cost of a bank guarantee letter (2-4% a year) and prefer it to promissory notes. · Early warning: The draft lease leaves the security clause open-ended

Regulation / Licensing

Licence delays

Likelihood 3Impact 39

The municipal licence, fire report and food registration can take 1-4 months; a residential title deed needs unanimous co-owner consent.

Mitigation: Check title deed type and licence eligibility at the municipality before signing; licence-conditional break clause; two months of extra cash. · Early warning: Licence file incomplete 8 weeks before opening

Execution / Timing

Fit-out overrun and cash

Likelihood 3Impact 39

covers 4 months of fixed costs; the is ₺0.3m (month 14). 10-20% fit-out overruns are normal in Turkey.

Mitigation: Fixed-price contractor, 10-15% , 4-6 months of . · Early warning: Cash < 2 months of fixed costs

Competition

New entrants and price pressure

Likelihood 3Impact 39

Central İstanbul is dense with F&B venues (10+ similar venues within 5 minutes); a chain opening nearby resets the price anchor.

Mitigation: Three verifiable differentiators, loyalty programme, neighbourhood relationships. · Early warning: Ticket or down two months in a row

Funding need and use of funds

Total funding need ₺4.78m: equity ₺1.20m (25%), unfunded gap ₺3.58m.

The plan does not close as designed: closing the gap needs more equity, a longer-tenor loan (with a check) or equipment leasing.

Where the money comes from

Source	Amount	Share
(founder)	₺1,200,000	25%
Unfunded gap	₺3,580,946	75%
Total investment	₺4,780,946	100%

Unfunded gap: ₺3,580,946. Equity and the loan do not cover the total need. Options: more equity, a longer-tenor loan (with a DSCR check) or equipment leasing.

Use of funds

31%

21%

15%

12%

+ ₺1.50m31%
₺1.02m21%
Equipment and IT₺740k15%
Pre-opening costs₺594k12%
Furniture and branding₺557k12%
₺206k4%
₺165k3%

EUR / USD reference view

Converted at a fixed reference rate (2026-09-01: 1 € = 55.5000 ₺, 1 $ = 47.5000 ₺); this is not an FX forecast. TRY figures are nominal; the currency equivalents are a rough scale for opening-year purchasing power.

Item	TRY	EUR	USD
Total investment	₺4,780,946	€86k	$101k
, equipment, furniture	₺2,058,461	€37k	$43k
	₺1,036,517	€19k	$22k
Monthly	₺55,000	€991	$1,158
( incl.)	₺240	€4	$5
Year-1 net	₺3,449,508	€62k	$73k
Year-2 net	₺5,894,449	€106k	$124k
Year-2	−₺129,895	−€2,340	−$2,735
Year-2 net income	−₺597,671	−€11k	−$13k
End of year-10 value ()	₺0	€0	$0

Roadmap and licensing checklist

Opening timeline (typical 16 weeks)

Weeks 1–2Lease, title-deed and licence eligibility check
Weeks 2–3Company setup, tax plate, chamber registration
Weeks 3–11Architectural project, fit-out and installations
Weeks 8–12Equipment procurement and installation
Weeks 9–14Licence application, fire report, food registration
Weeks 12–15Hiring, hygiene certificates, social security, training
Weeks 15–16Soft opening and launch marketing

Document / permit	Authority	Typical cost	Timeline
Tax office registration, commencement notice and tax plateSole trader: notify within 10 days of starting. Company: automatic via MERSİS/trade registry; the tax office makes a site visit.	Administration – local tax office (via your accountant)	No fee; accountant setup ₺3,000–10,000	1–5 business days
Trade or craftsmen registry and chamber membershipThe municipality asks for the chamber certificate in the licence file. Minimum capital: Ltd. ₺50,000; A.Ş. ₺250,000.	Trade Registry or Craftsmen Registry; Chamber of Commerce / trade chamber	Sole trader ₺2,000–6,000; Ltd. ₺25,000–45,000; A.Ş. ₺35,000–65,000 (excl. capital)	1–5 business days
Municipal business opening and operating licenceCafes/patisseries/restaurants are 'sanitary establishments'; licensed bars and live-music venues are 'public rest and entertainment venues'. A residential title deed needs unanimous co-owner consent (Condominium Law art. 24).	District municipality licensing directorate	₺5,000–40,000 (by m² and municipality)	Food venue: same day–2 weeks; licensed/entertainment venue: 3–8 weeks
Condominium owners' consent (if the unit is registered as residential)The most common reason projects fail after signing a lease: check the title deed before signing. Chimney and ventilation ducts through common areas need consent even for shop units.	Building owners' assembly (notarised decision)	Notary ₺1,500–5,000	1–6 weeks
Food business registration certificateMust be obtained before the first sale. Then hygiene prerequisites, traceability, allergen declaration and staff hygiene training obligations apply.	Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, provincial directorate	Free	1–4 weeks (statutory 30 days)
Hygiene training certificate (every food handler)8-hour course, valid for life, verifiable on e-Devlet. Also a pre-employment health report under the OHS law.	Ministry of Education public education centres / approved e-learning	₺0–1,500 per person	1–7 days
workplace registration and employee entriesEmployee entry at least one day before starting. Wages via bank from 5+ employees. Informal employment cancels all incentives.	Institution (e-Bildirge)	No fee; employer cost ≈1.3x gross wage	Same day (electronic)
Occupational health and safety: risk assessment, emergency plan, OHS providerRestaurants (NACE 56.10) and bakery production are 'hazardous': an OHS specialist and workplace doctor are mandatory. Cafes are 'low hazard'.	Ministry of Labour; OHS service provider	Provider ₺1,500–5,000/month; risk assessment ₺3,000–8,000	1–2 weeks before opening
Fire department report / fire safety complianceExtinguishers, emergency exits, hood and grease-duct cleaning contract, chimney, gas leak detector and solenoid valve are inspected.	Metropolitan / municipal fire department	Report ₺1,000–5,000; equipment ₺10,000–60,000	1–3 weeks
Music licence from collecting societiesConsumer streaming subscriptions are not commercial licences. Live music needs a separate municipal permit and noise rules apply.	Collecting societies	₺5,000–40,000/year	1–2 weeks
New-generation fiscal and e-invoice/e-archiveA receipt/invoice is mandatory for every sale, including platform orders. e-Invoice is mandatory at ₺3m ; ₺500k for internet sales.	Administration	Fiscal ₺8,000–25,000 per device; integrator ₺3,000–15,000/year	1–2 weeks
Pavement occupation permit and signage taxUnauthorised tables are removed by municipal police.	District municipality	Occupation ₺500–3,000 per m²/year; signage ₺1,000–10,000/year	Annual declaration (January)
Price display, service charge and allergen informationPrices must include and be visible before ordering; a service charge must be announced on the menu; 14 allergens on the menu or on request.	Ministry of Trade; Ministry of Agriculture	0	Before opening
Business insurance (fire, third-party, employer liability)Compulsory earthquake cover protects the building, not tenant contents. Third-party liability is recommended for customer injury or food-poisoning claims.	Insurers (landlord or franchisor may require)	₺15,000–80,000/year	Before opening

Assumptions and sources

Industry averages are estimates dated 2026-09; they are refreshed quarterly because of inflation.

Assumption	Value	Source
Concept	Specialty coffee	User
Province	İstanbul	User
District	Kadıköy Moda	User
District tier	Istanbul, secondary	User
Location type	Street	User
Tourism dependency	Low	Derived
Opening month	March 2027	User
Lease term	5 yr	Industry average
Franchise	No	User
Franchise entry fee	₺0	Industry average
Royalty (% of net sales)	0%	Industry average
Franchise marketing fund	0%	Industry average
Serves alcohol	No	User
Alcohol share of sales	0%	Industry average
Legal form	Sole proprietorship	User
Indoor area	40 m²	User
Indoor seats	12 seats	User
Outdoor seats	4 seats	User
Months outdoor seating is usable	6 mo	Derived
Operating days per month	30 days	User
Operating hours per day	11 h	User
Condition of the space	Partially fitted	User
Fit-out cost per m²	₺24,053 / m²	Industry average
Kitchen / bar equipment	₺985,982	Industry average
Second-hand equipment share	70%	User
Furniture per seat	₺22,271 / seat	Industry average
POS and IT package	₺133,626	Industry average
Signage and branding	₺200,440	Industry average
Design fee (% of fit-out)	6%	Industry average
Licensing and permits	₺167,033	Industry average
Key money / takeover fee	₺0	Industry average
Deposit (months of rent)	3 mo	Industry average
Pre-opening marketing	₺222,711	Industry average
Pre-opening training	3 wk	Derived
Fit-out duration	2 mo	Derived
Rent-free months	1 mo	Industry average
Opening inventory (months)	1 mo	Industry average
Contingency	10%	Industry average
Working capital (months)	4 mo	Industry average
Average ticket (incl. VAT)	₺240	User
Seat turns per day	5.5×	Derived
Mature occupancy	53.8%	Industry average
Ramp-up profile	Slow	Derived
Annual real growth	0%	Industry average
Takeaway share	30%	Derived
Delivery share	0%	Derived
Delivery commission / courier cost	30%	Industry average
Platform ads	5%	Industry average
Delivery ticket vs dine-in	0.9×	Derived
Beverage share of sales	80%	Industry average
Ticket the cost ratio is anchored to	₺240	Derived
Food cost %	28%	Industry average
Beverage cost %	24%	Derived
Seasonality pattern	City centre	Derived
Seasonality amplitude	1×	Industry average
Ramadan effect	Yes	Industry average
Off-season operating mode	Open	Derived
Off-season months	—	Derived
Roster	1 Barista	User
Gross minimum wage	₺33,030	Industry average
Employer cost factor	1.33×	Industry average
Mid-year wage step	0%	Industry average
Founder salary (monthly)	₺55,171	Derived
Founder works in the venue	Yes	User
Founding partners	1	User
Partners working in the venue	1	Derived
Monthly rent	₺55,000	User
Rent escalation (per year)	24% / 18% / 14%	Industry average
Landlord is an individual (withholding)	Yes	User
Common charges per m²	₺0 / m²	Derived
Utilities per m²	₺356 / m²	Industry average
Marketing (% of sales)	3%	User
Accounting and legal (monthly)	₺13,363	Industry average
Software subscriptions (monthly)	₺7,238	Industry average
Maintenance (% of sales)	1%	Industry average
Packaging (% of off-premise sales)	4%	Industry average
Card payment share	85%	Industry average
Card commission	2.5%	Industry average
Other fixed costs (monthly)	₺27,839	Industry average
Corporate / income tax	25%	Industry average
VAT (food service)	10%	Industry average
VAT (alcohol)	20%	Industry average
Blended input VAT on purchases	6%	Industry average
Input VAT on capex	20%	Industry average
Input VAT on opex	20%	Industry average
Inflation (year 1 / 2 / 3)	24% / 18% / 14%	Industry average
Menu repricing interval	3 mo	Industry average
Discount rate (nominal)	40%	Industry average
Reference rate (USD)	47.5×	Industry average
Reference rate (EUR)	55.5×	Industry average
Assumed annual lira depreciation	15%	Industry average
Equity	₺1,200,000	User
Bank loan	₺0	Derived
Loan interest (annual)	45%	Industry average
Loan term	36 mo	Industry average
Grace period	0 mo	Industry average
Family / friends funding	₺0	Derived
KOSGEB support	₺0	Derived
Investor planned	No	Derived
Terminal value method	Book value	Industry average
Terminal EBITDA multiple	3×	Industry average
Replacement capex (monthly, % of sales)	0.5%	Industry average

Important notice

Important notice This report and the accompanying investor presentation were produced by the FIZIBI platform through an automated financial model and, where selected, AI-assisted text generation, based on the user's answers to a questionnaire and on assumptions chosen by the user or suggested by the platform. The report is intended solely for general information and preliminary assessment. 1. Not investment advice This report does not constitute investment advisory services, an investment recommendation, a public offering, a solicitation to buy or sell shares or any capital-market instrument, or an invitation to crowdfunding within the meaning of Turkish Capital Markets Law No. 6362 and related regulations. FIZIBI is not an institution authorised by the Capital Markets Board of Türkiye (SPK), and nothing in this report may be construed as a personalised recommendation to make or refrain from making any investment. 2. Not accounting or legal advice This report is not a certified public accountancy service under Law No. 3568, not legal advice under the Attorneyship Law No. 1136, and not a banking, credit-brokerage or insurance service. Information on licences, permits, taxes and employment is general in nature and may differ by municipality, province, business type and subsequent changes in legislation. For definitive and current information, consult the relevant municipality, the provincial directorate of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, the tax office, a certified public accountant (SMMM) and a lawyer. 3. Forward-looking statements All figures for revenue, costs, profit, cash flow, payback period, internal rate of return and similar metrics are estimates based on assumptions as at the report date; they are not commitments or guarantees. Actual results may differ materially due to location, competition, management quality, supplier prices, inflation, exchange rates, interest rates, minimum-wage and tax changes, and unforeseen events. In Türkiye's high-inflation environment all amounts are in Turkish Lira as at the report date; EUR/USD equivalents are shown for reference only. 4. Responsibility for data The accuracy of this report depends on the accuracy of the information entered by the user. FIZIBI does not verify user inputs. AI-generated text may contain errors, omissions or outdated information and must be reviewed by the user. 5. No warranty; limitation of liability FIZIBI gives no warranty as to fitness for any particular purpose, the availability of financing, the granting of licences or permits, or the profitability of the business. Subject to mandatory consumer-protection rights, FIZIBI is not liable for decisions made in reliance on this report or their consequences, including direct or indirect losses and loss of profit. 6. Sharing with third parties When sharing this report or presentation with investors, banks or other third parties, the user must keep this notice intact. Recipients must conduct their own independent assessment and due diligence. By using this report you confirm that you have read, understood and accepted the notices above. In case of discrepancy, the Turkish version prevails.

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Generated: 05/09/2026, 09:00:00 · Engine v1.8.0 · Benchmark version 2026-09

Glossary: terms in this report

Plain-language versions of the terms used in the report and deck. When an investor or banker asks about one, answer from here.

Revenue (net sales): What is left of everything that goes through the till once VAT is taken out. Every ratio in this report is measured against this net figure.
EBITDA: Sales minus ingredients, payroll, rent and other running costs, before loan interest, tax and depreciation: what the venue earns on its own.
COGS (cost of goods sold): What the ingredients inside what you sell cost you. As a share of sales it is one of the most-watched numbers: 40 ₺ of ingredients in a 150 ₺ coffee = 27%.
Gross profit: Sales minus the cost of ingredients. Payroll, rent and other costs have not been taken out yet.
Payroll (gross + social security): The gross wage paid to staff plus what the employer pays on top: social security and unemployment contributions, meals, transport and severance accrual. FIZIBI costs a roster at 1.33× the gross wage.
Rent + service charge: Monthly rent, the service charge on shared areas and withholding tax where it applies. In F&B you want this under 10% of sales.
Other operating costs: Everything outside ingredients, payroll and rent: energy, water, maintenance, cleaning, consumables, card fees, marketing, accounting.
Profit before tax: The profit left once everything but tax is deducted; corporation tax is calculated on this figure.
Net profit: What is left after every cost, depreciation, loan interest and tax. The figure the owners actually earn.
Prime cost: Ingredients plus payroll as a share of sales. The single most-watched F&B number; above 65% is a danger sign.
Contribution margin: What one sale leaves behind once the costs tied to that sale — ingredients, commission, packaging — are paid, to cover rent and wages.
Average ticket: What one customer spends on average. Multiplied by customers per day it gives daily sales.
Break-even: The point where you neither win nor lose: how many customers a day (or how much revenue a month) covers all costs.
Break-even safety margin: How far the planned customer count sits above break-even. 20% means you still don't lose money if customers drop by a fifth.
Cash trough: The lowest point the cash balance reaches over 36 months. Negative means you must find money that month; positive means the plan funds itself.
Month cash runs out: The month the till hits zero if no more money goes in. Blank means the cash never runs out.
Free cash flow: The difference between cash in and cash out in a month, loan and investment payments included. Not profit — the cash actually left in hand.
Net operating cash: The cash the business generates from trading day to day, before investment spending and loan principal.
Payback: Months until the money you put in has come back to the till. Healthy small venues: 18-36 months.
IRR (internal rate of return): The investment's yearly percentage return, read like a deposit rate. 'Nominal' includes inflation, 'real' strips it out. The hurdle (40%) is the minimum expected for an investment of this risk in Turkey. It is computed over the ten years of cash flow the model runs.
NPV (net present value): The ten years the model runs, discounted to today's money at 40%, minus the investment. Positive means the venture beats the hurdle.
DSCR (debt service coverage ratio): Yearly earnings divided by yearly loan installments. Banks want at least 1.3: 130 ₺ earned for every 100 ₺ of installments.
Investor multiple (MOIC): What the investor gets back over ten years divided by what they put in. 2x means the money doubled.
Cash-on-cash return: A year's cash return divided by the money you put in. 50% means you took back half your investment that year.
Nominal / real: A nominal figure includes inflation; a real one strips it out. A 66% nominal return with 30% inflation is roughly 28% in real terms.
Discount rate: The yearly rate used to turn future money into today's value; it includes inflation and risk. FIZIBI uses 40% nominal.
Terminal value: What the business still holds at the end of year ten, where the model stops: the deposit and cash reserve that come back, any recoverable VAT credit, less the loan still outstanding. You can add book value, or a sale price at an EBITDA multiple, on top.
Dividend yield: The profit paid out to shareholders as a share of what they put in. This is the part that leaves the company as cash; a 15% withholding comes off on distribution, and the report's figure is after it.
Post-money / pre-money valuation: If an investor pays 2.5m ₺ for 30%, the whole company is valued at 8.33m ₺ (post-money); minus the investment that is pre-money (5.83m ₺).
Equity: The founders' and partners' own money in the business. Unlike a loan it is never repaid — it buys a share of the company.
Working capital: The cash reserve that pays rent, wages and bills after opening until sales settle; usually 3-6 months of fixed costs.
Contingency: A cushion on the fit-out and equipment budget; something always costs more than planned. The model adds 10% by default, and you can raise it.
Rent deposit: Usually two to three months' rent left with the landlord as security. You get it back on leaving, but it ties up cash at opening.
Key money / takeover fee: A lump sum paid to the outgoing tenant or the landlord to take over the premises, on top of rent. You do not get it back.
Fit-out: All the building work that turns an empty unit into a working venue: floors, walls, plumbing, electrics, ventilation. The biggest budget line and the one that slips most.
MEP (mechanical, electrical, plumbing): Ventilation, extraction, water, drainage and the electrical board. In a cafe this approaches a third of the fit-out budget, and it is the most expensive thing to add later.
Fiscal cash register / kitchen display: ÖKC is the legally required fiscal cash register; KDS is the screen that puts orders in front of the kitchen. Both connect to the POS.
Franchise fee and royalty: The lump sum paid up front to trade under a brand, and the regular cut of sales (royalty) paid afterwards.
Depreciation: Spreading the cost of fit-out and equipment over the years it is used instead of expensing it at once. Not a cash outflow.
Withholding tax (rent): 20% paid to the state on top of net rent when the landlord is a private person. A net rent of 100,000 ₺ costs you 125,000 ₺.
VAT (carried forward / recoverable): VAT is 10% on food-service sales and 20% on alcohol. VAT paid on fit-out and equipment is offset against the VAT you collect on sales; in the first months you hold a VAT credit that melts over time.
BSMV (banking transaction tax): A 5% tax on the interest of a commercial loan; KKDF is not charged on commercial credit. Multiply the bank's quoted rate by 1.05: 45% becomes 47.25%.
REVPASH: Revenue per available seat hour: how hard each seat works.
Occupancy: How full the seats are on average through the day. 60% occupancy times seat turns gives customers per day.
Seat turns: How many different customers one seat would take in a day if it were never empty: 5-6 in a coffee shop, 2-3 in a restaurant. Multiplied by occupancy to get the actual count.
Full-time equivalent (FTE): Two part-timers count as one full-timer. Rosters are counted this way.
Mature (year / occupancy): The settled state once the opening ramp is over, usually year 2. Figures marked 'mature' describe this period.
Opening ramp: The months after opening while customer numbers climb to their settled level. The first year looks weak because of it.
Card fee: The bank's cut on every card sale. The model uses 2.5%, and assumes 85% of non-delivery sales are paid by card. Cash sales carry none.
Delivery commission: The cut delivery platforms take on every order: 22-33% by platform, and the model uses a blended 30%. Packaging and in-app advertising (about 5% of delivery sales) come on top.
Sensitivity (tornado) analysis: Bars showing how much the result moves when each input is nudged 10% on its own; the longest bar is the assumption to watch.
Base / pessimistic / optimistic / stress case: The same plan run on different assumptions: base is what you expect, pessimistic is sales coming in low, and stress adds an inflation and cost shock on top.
Industry benchmark: The average for comparable venues in the same concept and area. A compass to compare your plan against, not a rule.
Feasibility score: A weighted average of payback, return, safety margin, rent ratio, prime cost, funding and risk, out of 100. It does not make the decision — it tells you where to look.
KGF guarantee: A state guarantee fund that stands surety for the bank so new businesses without collateral can borrow.
KOSGEB entrepreneur support: Grants for new businesses (setup and performance support) and an interest-free equipment loan; applied for after the company exists, approval takes 3-6 months.