Arka Sokak Kahve
Specialty coffee · Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul · 40 m² · 12 seats · Opening 2027-03
Arka Sokak Kahve: marginal — redesign (51/100). The investment comes back in 49 months; rent is 12% of sales, ingredients + payroll 49%; covering costs takes 66 customers a day against 80 planned (18% margin).
- • Equity + loan do not cover the total need; the difference is shown as an unfunded gap; additional equity, debt or an investor is needed.
Executive summary
General comment
Reading the first year, the 10-year average operating result and the investment return indicators together, the current assumptions do not generate cash that repays the investment; the project does not look sustainable as designed until the payroll ratio and the period are reworked.
| Line | YEAR 1 | 10-YEAR AVERAGE · | Executive comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| ₺4.85m56 customers a day · ₺264 realised avg. ticket (incl. VAT) · revenue is net of VAT | ₺14.2m / year10-year average | At 80 customers a day and a ₺316 average ticket (in year-2 prices), year 2 net revenue is ₺8.28m. Against the location, 40 m², 12 seats and 54% expected , the revenue assumption looks conservative (monthly sales per m² are 41% below the industry reference). The 10-year average is nominal: most of the gap over year 1 is the price level, not real growth. | |
| ₺1.25m · 25.7% | ₺3.60m · 25.4%10-year average | In year 2 is 25.5% of revenue. Against the 25.0% industry reference for comparable specialty coffee concepts this is in line, and over 10 years the ratio holds steady. | |
| ₺1.65m · 34.0%2 people | ₺3.57m · 25.1%10-year average | In year 2 payroll is 23.9% of revenue with 2 people planned. Against the 24%–30% industry band this is low, and over 10 years the ratio improves. A low ratio should not be read as a win on its own; opening hours, shift patterns and the service model have to be checked before the staffing plan is treated as operationally realistic. | |
| ₺1.30m · 26.9% | ₺3.16m · 22.2%10-year average | Other operating costs — energy, maintenance, cleaning, consumables, card and and marketing — are 21.6% of revenue, which is reasonable for this concept, and over 10 years the ratio improves. | |
| ₺825k · 17.0% | ₺1.78m · 12.6%10-year average | Rent and service charges are 12.4% of revenue, which is sustainable against the revenue the plan expects to generate, and over 10 years the ratio improves. Rent can rise at most 1% before exceeds 36 months. | |
| −₺174k · -3.6% | ₺2.09m · 14.7%10-year average | The margin is 16.7% in year 2 (-3.6% in year 1, 14.7% on the 10-year average). Its path from the first year to the long-run average shows the operation strengthening; reading the revenue and operating cost assumptions together, the profitability level is realistic and sustainable. | |
| ₺196k | ₺1.86m / year10-year average | The venue generates ₺196k of in year 1 and ₺1.86m a year on average over 10 years. After debt service and replacement capex the horizon generates ₺17.7m in total, 3.7x the ₺4.80m invested. Long-run cash generation is strong for the financial sustainability of the investment. | |
| 4.1 yr49 months | 10 yr+discounted at 40% | The ₺4.80m investment is expected to come back in 4.1 years (49 months), which is long for an investment of this size and the it generates. | |
| 30%nominal | 13%real · hurdle 40% | The is 30% against a 40% hurdle. Read together with the size of the investment, the period and the operating risks, the expected return is low. |
Investment performance
Overall conclusion
WEAK — The project generates ₺4.85m of revenue at a -3.6% margin in year 1, reaching an average of ₺14.2m and 14.7% over 10 years. The revenue assumption, the ratio, other operating costs, the rent burden, the EBITDA margin and generation look positive, while the payroll ratio, the period and the return () need to be watched closely. On a 30% IRR and a 4.1-year payback, the investment is in need of reworking.
A 40 m², 12-seat specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul needs a total investment of ₺4.80m: ₺2.06m in fit-out, equipment and furniture and ₺1.04m as a working-capital reserve (4 months of fixed costs).
At maturity (year 2) an average of 80 customers a day at an average ticket of ₺240 produce ₺8.28m of net revenue with a 17% margin. The first year stays at -4% because of the opening .
needs 66 customers a day, a of 18%. (ticket −10%, −15%, slow ) is not reached within 120 months; optimistic 27 months.
Equity of ₺1.20m cover 25% of the need; ₺3.60m remains an unfunded gap and the plan does not close as designed.
Score components
- 62· 20%49 mo
- 34Return vs hurdle · 15%30%
- 63· 15%18%
- 66cost ratio · 10%12%
- 100· 10%49%
- 20Funding structure · 10%gap ₺3.6m
- 17Downside resilience · 15%pessimistic >120 mo
- 65Structural risk · 5%65/100
Recommendations
- What pulls the score down most is how the plan holds up if things go badly (17/100). Fix this first.
- The money you have covers 25% of the need; ₺3.60m is missing. Options: a smaller or fitted takeover space, a partner, family money or a longer-tenor loan.
- The result moves most with menu price; validate this figure with real observations and quotes.
- is under 20%: revisit seats, pricing or the assumption.
Concept and target customer
Arka Sokak Kahve is planned as a non-alcoholic specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul. The founder's differentiator, in their own words (Turkish): “Moda'nın arka sokağında 12 koltuklu, filtre kahve ve ev yapımı kek”
The difference does not yet show in the numbers: ticket, food cost and payroll all sit inside the district band. A real difference has to appear in either price or cost — if it appears in neither, the claim is undefended in front of an investor.
Capacity is 12 indoor + 4 outdoor seats, 11 hours a day, 30 days a month. Theoretical 5.5/day; mature 54% (FIZIBI assumption).
Location and market
Monthly rent is ₺55,000 (founder estimate, no property selected; private landlord, with 20% withholding the cost to the business is ₺68,750); 1,375 ₺ per m², 12% below the district .
Rent and service charges are 12% of mature net revenue: acceptable but tight. Rent can rise at most 1% before exceeds 36 months. Rent escalates at lease anniversaries by the 12-month average CPI.
Competitors within walking distance
No competitors were entered: this report names no competing venue and no competing price. The project's average ticket therefore stands alone — measured against the district band, with no real menu price beside it.
What to add, one line per venue: name · what they charge for your core item · roughly how many seats · when they are busy. It can still be added from the Location section of the feasibility answers, and this block fills in as soon as it is.
Industry benchmarks
| Metric | Your plan | Industry / district | Deviation |
|---|---|---|---|
| (₺/m²/month) | ₺1,375 | ₺1,559 | -12% |
| (incl. ) | ₺240 | ₺301 | -20% |
| Investment per seat | ₺183,072 | ₺189,304 | -3% |
| Monthly sales per m² | ₺13,092 | ₺22,271 | -41% |
| % | 25.5% | 25.0% | +2% |
| Labor % of | 23.9% | 27.0% | -11% |
| -to- | 12.4% | 10.0% | +24% |
| 49.4% | 60.0% | -18% | |
| 53.8% | 65.0% | -17% |
Menu and unit economics
| Item | Dine-in (avg. ) |
|---|---|
| Gross price (incl. ) | ₺310 |
| −₺28 | |
| Net price | ₺282 |
| −₺73 | |
| −₺7 | |
| ₺202 (72%) |
Channel mix: dine-in 50%, takeaway 50%, no delivery.
Capacity and revenue model
Revenue is built bottom-up: seats × turns × × average ticket × days. The opening uses the slow (first venture) profile: month 1 at 40% of mature occupancy, 100% by month 12.
Seasonality profile “city centre”; Ramadan is modelled as a 15% daytime dip. Menu prices are repriced every 3 months while costs move monthly, so the lag squeezes gross margin.
The season spread is the plan: in year 2 the busiest month is October (97 customers a day) against January (59). The off-season burns ₺0 of cash, which has to be set aside before it starts, because fixed costs still need 66 customers a day through it.
Monthly net revenue (36 months)
Revenue is stated in year-2 nominal prices: the ₺240 ticket entered becomes ₺316 by year 2 at the menu price index (1.32x). Multiplying daily customers by the entered ticket will fall short by that factor.
Investment budget
Investment budget: fit-out ₺962k, equipment ₺606k, furniture ₺356k, /IT ₺134k; licences and incorporation ₺167k, signage and brand ₺200k.
Pre-opening costs ₺445k (marketing, training payroll, rent during fit-out, opening stock), ₺165k, ₺1.04m (4 months of fixed costs), input on CAPEX ₺463k (recovered by month 21) and a 10% of ₺206k.
Investment per seat ₺183k (industry reference ₺189k), per m² ₺73,229. FX reference: $101,049 / €86,484 (2026-09-01 rate).
- reserve₺1.04m22%
- and construction (incl. , ventilation)₺962k20%
- Kitchen / bar equipment₺606k13%
- Input on CAPEX (recoverable)₺463k10%
- Furniture and decor₺356k7%
- Launch marketing₺223k5%
- ₺206k4%
- Signage, branding, menus₺200k4%
- Licences, permits and incorporation₺167k3%
- ₺165k3%
- , cash register, and IT₺134k3%
- Pre-opening and training₺88,4752%
- during ₺68,7501%
- Opening inventory₺65,5591%
- Architect and project fees₺57,7271%
| Item | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| and construction (incl. , ventilation) | ₺962,120 | 20.0% |
| Kitchen / bar equipment | ₺606,379 | 12.6% |
| Furniture and decor | ₺356,336 | 7.4% |
| , cash register, and IT | ₺133,626 | 2.8% |
| Architect and project fees | ₺57,727 | 1.2% |
| Signage, branding, menus | ₺200,440 | 4.2% |
| Licences, permits and incorporation | ₺167,033 | 3.5% |
| Launch marketing | ₺222,711 | 4.6% |
| Pre-opening and training | ₺88,475 | 1.8% |
| during | ₺68,750 | 1.4% |
| Opening inventory | ₺65,559 | 1.4% |
| ₺165,000 | 3.4% | |
| reserve | ₺1,036,517 | 21.6% |
| Input on CAPEX (recoverable) | ₺463,326 | 9.7% |
| ₺205,846 | 4.3% | |
| Total investment | ₺4,799,845 | 100% |
Operating costs
Staffing is 1 people plus the founder (full-time on site, ₺55,171/month owner's draw). Opening-month employer cost ₺128k/month; employer cost is 1.33x gross (social security, unemployment, meals, transport, severance accrual), with January minimum-wage steps (2027: 27%, 2028: 21%, 2029: 17%) applied.
Mature-year cost structure: food & beverage 25%, labor 24%, rent and charges 12%. 49% — healthy.
The marketing budget is 3% of revenue, ₺20,705 a month in the mature year. That buys neighbourhood-targeted social ads, an opening-week push, visibility on maps and review platforms, a loyalty card and local partnerships. The first 90 days need their own plan — the ₺223k pre-opening budget spent on the surrounding businesses and offices is the cheapest way to bring in the first 40 customers a day. Retention matters as much as acquisition: bringing a customer back once a month costs less than finding a new one.
Mature-year (year 2) cost structure
- ₺176k · 25%
- Labor (gross + )₺165k · 24%
- + charges₺85,250 · 12%
- ₺0 · 0%
- Utilities₺20,586 · 3%
- Marketing₺20,705 · 3%
- ₺107k · 16%
Staffing plan
| Role | Headcount | Gross / month each (opening month) | Employer cost each | Total employer cost / month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barista | 1 | ₺54,533 | ₺72,528 | ₺72,528 |
| Founder (on site) | 1 | ₺55,171 | ₺55,171 | ₺55,171 |
| Total (opening month) | 2 | ₺127,699 |
Roster at opening-month wages; year-2 monthly payroll after the January minimum-wage steps: ₺165,159 (24%).
36-month P&L
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| (excl. ) | ₺4,846,630 | ₺8,281,823 | ₺9,651,582 |
| −₺1,246,060 | −₺2,110,728 | −₺2,445,980 | |
| ₺3,600,57174% | ₺6,171,09575% | ₺7,205,60175% | |
| Labor (gross + ) | −₺1,646,093 | −₺1,981,912 | −₺2,301,594 |
| + charges | −₺825,000 | −₺1,023,000 | −₺1,207,140 |
| ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 | |
| −₺1,303,523 | −₺1,785,438 | −₺2,085,055 | |
| −₺174,046-4% | ₺1,380,74517% | ₺1,611,81217% | |
| −₺418,373 | −₺418,373 | −₺418,373 | |
| Interest (incl. ) | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 |
| −₺633,377 | ₺912,969 | ₺1,136,247 | |
| Tax (indicative) | ₺0 | ₺0 | −₺114,637 |
| −₺633,377-13% | ₺912,96911% | ₺1,021,61011% |
Assumptions: CPI 24%/18%/14%; January minimum-wage steps 2027: 27%, 2028: 21%, 2029: 17%; rent escalates at lease anniversaries by 24%/18%/14%; discount rate 40% nominal; prices as of 2026-09-01, indexed to the opening month. The tax line is indicative, after loss carry-forward.
Show monthly table
| Month | Customers | Net | Labor | Other | Cash | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Mar 2027 | 793 | ₺173k | ₺43,710 | ₺129k | ₺68,750 | ₺82,983 | −₺151k | −₺76,670 | ₺1.17m |
| 2 · Apr 2027 | 984 | ₺215k | ₺55,161 | ₺130k | ₺68,750 | ₺88,768 | −₺128k | −₺91,125 | ₺1.07m |
| 3 · May 2027 | 1451 | ₺316k | ₺82,825 | ₺131k | ₺68,750 | ₺101k | −₺67,086 | −₺7,652 | ₺1.07m |
| 4 · Jun 2027 | 1602 | ₺369k | ₺93,139 | ₺132k | ₺68,750 | ₺101k | −₺25,710 | −₺10,318 | ₺1.06m |
| 5 · Jul 2027 | 1647 | ₺379k | ₺97,453 | ₺133k | ₺68,750 | ₺103k | −₺23,068 | −₺9,626 | ₺1.05m |
| 6 · Aug 2027 | 1744 | ₺402k | ₺105k | ₺134k | ₺68,750 | ₺106k | −₺12,677 | ₺3,568 | ₺1.05m |
| 7 · Sept 2027 | 2092 | ₺508k | ₺128k | ₺135k | ₺68,750 | ₺117k | ₺58,724 | ₺89,255 | ₺1.14m |
| 8 · Oct 2027 | 2340 | ₺569k | ₺146k | ₺136k | ₺68,750 | ₺124k | ₺93,208 | ₺126k | ₺1.27m |
| 9 · Nov 2027 | 1963 | ₺477k | ₺125k | ₺137k | ₺68,750 | ₺117k | ₺28,675 | ₺35,509 | ₺1.30m |
| 10 · Dec 2027 | 2155 | ₺553k | ₺140k | ₺139k | ₺68,750 | ₺126k | ₺80,226 | ₺109k | ₺1.41m |
| 11 · Jan 2028 | 1793 | ₺460k | ₺118k | ₺155k | ₺68,750 | ₺119k | −₺792 | ₺4,328 | ₺1.41m |
| 12 · Feb 2028 | 1666 | ₺427k | ₺112k | ₺156k | ₺68,750 | ₺117k | −₺26,722 | −₺17,271 | ₺1.40m |
| 13 · Mar 2028 | 2074 | ₺561k | ₺141k | ₺157k | ₺85,250 | ₺130k | ₺47,304 | ₺82,269 | ₺1.48m |
| 14 · Apr 2028 | 2138 | ₺578k | ₺147k | ₺158k | ₺85,250 | ₺133k | ₺54,570 | ₺80,251 | ₺1.56m |
| 15 · May 2028 | 2790 | ₺755k | ₺195k | ₺159k | ₺85,250 | ₺150k | ₺165k | ₺223k | ₺1.78m |
| 16 · Jun 2028 | 2762 | ₺779k | ₺196k | ₺160k | ₺85,250 | ₺154k | ₺184k | ₺220k | ₺2.00m |
| 17 · Jul 2028 | 2573 | ₺725k | ₺185k | ₺161k | ₺85,250 | ₺150k | ₺144k | ₺171k | ₺2.17m |
| 18 · Aug 2028 | 2492 | ₺703k | ₺182k | ₺162k | ₺85,250 | ₺149k | ₺124k | ₺153k | ₺2.33m |
| 19 · Sept 2028 | 2790 | ₺820k | ₺206k | ₺163k | ₺85,250 | ₺161k | ₺204k | ₺254k | ₺2.58m |
| 20 · Oct 2028 | 2925 | ₺860k | ₺219k | ₺164k | ₺85,250 | ₺166k | ₺225k | ₺272k | ₺2.85m |
| 21 · Nov 2028 | 2309 | ₺679k | ₺175k | ₺165k | ₺85,250 | ₺151k | ₺102k | ₺91,694 | ₺2.94m |
| 22 · Dec 2028 | 2395 | ₺734k | ₺184k | ₺166k | ₺85,250 | ₺157k | ₺140k | ₺141k | ₺3.09m |
| 23 · Jan 2029 | 1775 | ₺544k | ₺139k | ₺182k | ₺85,250 | ₺141k | −₺3,693 | −₺28,301 | ₺3.06m |
| 24 · Feb 2029 | 1780 | ₺545k | ₺141k | ₺183k | ₺85,250 | ₺143k | −₺7,154 | −₺8,901 | ₺3.05m |
| 25 · Mar 2029 | 2074 | ₺662k | ₺166k | ₺184k | ₺101k | ₺154k | ₺56,744 | ₺64,771 | ₺3.11m |
| 26 · Apr 2029 | 2138 | ₺683k | ₺173k | ₺185k | ₺101k | ₺157k | ₺66,338 | ₺66,495 | ₺3.18m |
| 27 · May 2029 | 2790 | ₺891k | ₺228k | ₺186k | ₺101k | ₺177k | ₺198k | ₺221k | ₺3.40m |
| 28 · Jun 2029 | 2762 | ₺911k | ₺228k | ₺187k | ₺101k | ₺180k | ₺215k | ₺211k | ₺3.61m |
| 29 · Jul 2029 | 2573 | ₺849k | ₺215k | ₺188k | ₺101k | ₺176k | ₺169k | ₺160k | ₺3.77m |
| 30 · Aug 2029 | 2492 | ₺822k | ₺211k | ₺189k | ₺101k | ₺175k | ₺147k | ₺138k | ₺3.91m |
| 31 · Sept 2029 | 2790 | ₺951k | ₺238k | ₺190k | ₺101k | ₺188k | ₺235k | ₺214k | ₺4.12m |
| 32 · Oct 2029 | 2925 | ₺997k | ₺253k | ₺191k | ₺101k | ₺193k | ₺260k | ₺223k | ₺4.35m |
| 33 · Nov 2029 | 2309 | ₺787k | ₺202k | ₺192k | ₺101k | ₺175k | ₺118k | ₺74,554 | ₺4.42m |
| 34 · Dec 2029 | 2395 | ₺843k | ₺211k | ₺193k | ₺101k | ₺181k | ₺157k | ₺132k | ₺4.55m |
| 35 · Jan 2030 | 1673 | ₺589k | ₺149k | ₺208k | ₺101k | ₺160k | −₺28,534 | −₺61,634 | ₺4.49m |
| 36 · Feb 2030 | 1893 | ₺667k | ₺171k | ₺209k | ₺101k | ₺168k | ₺18,292 | ₺25,003 | ₺4.52m |
Cash flow and break-even
turns positive from month 7. After full funding, cumulative cash bottoms out at ₺1.05m in month 5; the working-capital reserve covers the trough.
Simple 49 months. 10-year at 40% nominal is −₺1.21m; project 30% nominal, 13% real. ₺1.41m (year-10 book value + + ).
Supply and cash cycle: stock sits 12 days, card takings land 1 days later, and supplier terms are modelled at 30 days. The net cycle is about 17 days negative — customers pay before suppliers do, so growth does not tie up more — but only once supplier terms actually reach 30 days. Supplier terms are earned, not granted — the first months are cash on delivery, which is what the 4-month working-capital reserve (₺1.04m) is for.
This cash statement assumes the unraised ₺3.60m is in place. On committed money alone the low point is −₺2.55m.
Cumulative cash position (net of the total investment)
The curve starts where the money goes out: month 0 sits ₺4.80m below zero. The month it crosses the zero line is the month the investment is back. Dashed lines: pessimistic and optimistic scenarios.
- Customers/day needed
- 66
- Planned
- 80
- Season
- 66 / 91
- Off-season
- 66 / 69
- Cash (excl. and loan principal)
- 60
- 50%
- 18%
- First positive month
- 7
- Simple
- 49 mo
- 120 mo+
- (excl. refundable lines)
- 32 mo
- (after full funding)
- ₺1.05m · month 5
- (10 years)
- ₺1.05m · month 5
- (10 years, 40%)
- −₺1.21m
- Project (unlevered, )
- 30%
- Project ()
- 13%
- (10 years)
- 3.99x
- Year-2
- 34%
- ₺1.41m
Scenarios and sensitivity
case (ticket −10%, −15%, slow , +2 pts, first rent renewal +6 pts): year-2 margin -4%, not within 120 months, additional funding need ₺0.
Stress case ( + inflation 30/26/22%, mid-year wage hike 15%, fit-out +15%, commission +3 pts): additional funding need ₺3.23m, year-2 margin -25%. Optimistic case: 27 months, ₺3.68m.
: year-1 net profit is driven most by menu price, , labor cost (each moved on its own). The first alone moves it by ₺879k.
| Metric | Base | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year-1 net | ₺3.71m | ₺4.85m | ₺7.37m | ₺3.17m |
| Year-2 net | ₺6.34m | ₺8.28m | ₺9.46m | ₺5.64m |
| Year-2 | −₺267k | ₺1.38m | ₺2.60m | −₺1.39m |
| Year-2 margin | -4.2% | 16.7% | 27.5% | -24.6% |
| Year-1 | −₺1.56m | −₺633k | ₺1.22m | −₺2.28m |
| (months) | — | 49 | 27 | — |
| −₺6.22m | −₺1.21m | ₺3.68m | −₺11.0m | |
| Additional funding need | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺3.23m |
| Month | — | — | — | 11 |
| month | 15 | 7 | 2 | — |
Stress case: pessimistic plus high inflation, a mid-year wage hike and a fit-out overrun (additional).
Sensitivity: year-1 net profit (each driver moved on its own)
- Menu price (±10%)−₺1.07m−₺194k
- (±10%)−₺948k−₺319k
- (±10%)−₺798k−₺469k
- % (±3 pts)−₺784k−₺483k
- (±10%)−₺716k−₺551k
- & equipment (±10%)−₺669k−₺598k
- Inflation (±6 pts)−₺647k−₺620k
Ticket × occupancy: payback (months)
| ↓ ticket / occupancy → | -20% | -10% | 0% | +10% | +20% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -20% | — | — | — | — | 79 |
| -10% | — | — | 80 | 55 | 43 |
| 0% | — | 67 | 49 | 39 | 32 |
| +10% | 65 | 44 | 36 | 30 | 27 |
| +20% | 44 | 34 | 29 | 26 | 22 |
Rows are menu price, columns are occupancy; '—' means beyond the payback threshold. Ingredient cost per order is held at the planned menu, so a price move is a margin move and a volume move is not.
- Rent can rise at most 1%
- Menu price can fall at most 0%
- Occupancy can fall at most 0%
Risks and mitigations
Founder experience: The founder is a first-time F&B operator; the learning curve hits cost and quality in the first six months. Mitigation: Hire an experienced chef or manager before opening; check references; find an advisor.
Demand below plan: needs 66 customers/day; the plan is 80. 18%. Mitigation: Pre-opening footfall count, three competitor menu checks, soft opening, 90-day marketing budget.
Wage inflation and turnover: Labor is 24% of revenue. January minimum-wage steps (est. 27%, 21%) and a possible mid-year hike hit margin directly. Mitigation: Reprice the menu with wage steps; cross-train staff; shift planning.
The founder is a first-time F&B operator; the learning curve hits cost and quality in the first six months.
Mitigation: Hire an experienced chef or manager before opening; check references; find an advisor. · Early warning: Staff turnover, waste %, customer complaints
needs 66 customers/day; the plan is 80. 18%.
Mitigation: Pre-opening footfall count, three competitor menu checks, soft opening, 90-day marketing budget. · Early warning: 4-week rolling customers/day (incl. takeaway and delivery)
Labor is 24% of revenue. January minimum-wage steps (est. 27%, 21%) and a possible mid-year hike hit margin directly.
Mitigation: Reprice the menu with wage steps; cross-train staff; shift planning. · Early warning: Labor % > 35%
Costs move monthly while the menu reprices every 3 months; each extra 10 points of inflation costs ~1.2 points of gross margin.
Mitigation: Monthly cost tracking, supplier terms, quarterly repricing, focused menu. · Early warning: % > target +3 pts
Commercial landlords routinely ask for security beyond the — promissory notes, a bank guarantee letter or a personal surety, often several months' rent; for a new venture it is the norm. That amount is not in the investment budget.
Mitigation: Settle the type and amount of security in writing before signing; budget the cost of a bank guarantee letter (2-4% a year) and prefer it to promissory notes. · Early warning: The draft lease leaves the security clause open-ended
No place yet; rent is the district average and equals 12% of mature-year sales. A real offer moves this ratio either way.
Mitigation: 5+5 year lease with renewal option, licence-conditional break clause, registered lease annotation; rent in TRY. · Early warning: Rent-to-revenue > 15%
The municipal licence, fire report and food registration can take 1-4 months; a residential title deed needs unanimous co-owner consent.
Mitigation: Check title deed type and licence eligibility at the municipality before signing; licence-conditional break clause; two months of extra cash. · Early warning: Licence file incomplete 8 weeks before opening
covers 4 months of fixed costs; the is ₺1.0m (month 5). 10-20% fit-out overruns are normal in Turkey.
Mitigation: Fixed-price contractor, 10-15% , 4-6 months of . · Early warning: Cash < 2 months of fixed costs
Central İstanbul is dense with F&B venues (10+ similar venues within 5 minutes); a chain opening nearby resets the price anchor.
Mitigation: Three verifiable differentiators, loyalty programme, neighbourhood relationships. · Early warning: Ticket or down two months in a row
Funding need and use of funds
Total funding need ₺4.80m: equity ₺1.20m (25%), unfunded gap ₺3.60m.
The plan does not close as designed: closing the gap needs more equity, a longer-tenor loan (with a check) or equipment leasing.
Where the money comes from
| Source | Amount | Share |
|---|---|---|
| (founder) | ₺1,200,000 | 25% |
| Unfunded gap | ₺3,599,845 | 75% |
| Total investment | ₺4,799,845 | 100% |
Unfunded gap: ₺3,599,845. Equity and the loan do not cover the total need. Options: more equity, a longer-tenor loan (with a DSCR check) or equipment leasing.
Use of funds
- + ₺1.50m31%
- ₺1.02m21%
- Equipment and IT₺740k15%
- Pre-opening costs₺613k13%
- Furniture and branding₺557k12%
- ₺206k4%
- ₺165k3%
EUR / USD reference view
Converted at a fixed reference rate (2026-09-01: 1 € = 55.5000 ₺, 1 $ = 47.5000 ₺); this is not an FX forecast. TRY figures are nominal; the currency equivalents are a rough scale for opening-year purchasing power.
| Item | TRY | EUR | USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total investment | ₺4,799,845 | €86k | $101k |
| , equipment, furniture | ₺2,058,461 | €37k | $43k |
| ₺1,036,517 | €19k | $22k | |
| Monthly | ₺55,000 | €991 | $1,158 |
| ( incl.) | ₺240 | €4 | $5 |
| Year-1 net | ₺4,846,630 | €87k | $102k |
| Year-2 net | ₺8,281,823 | €149k | $174k |
| Year-2 | ₺1,380,745 | €25k | $29k |
| Year-2 net income | ₺912,969 | €16k | $19k |
| End of year-10 value () | ₺1,407,363 | €25k | $30k |
Roadmap and licensing checklist
Opening timeline (typical 16 weeks)
- Weeks 1–2Lease, title-deed and licence eligibility check
- Weeks 2–3Company setup, tax plate, chamber registration
- Weeks 3–11Architectural project, fit-out and installations
- Weeks 8–12Equipment procurement and installation
- Weeks 9–14Licence application, fire report, food registration
- Weeks 12–15Hiring, hygiene certificates, social security, training
- Weeks 15–16Soft opening and launch marketing
| Document / permit | Authority | Typical cost | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tax office registration, commencement notice and tax plateSole trader: notify within 10 days of starting. Company: automatic via MERSİS/trade registry; the tax office makes a site visit. | Administration – local tax office (via your accountant) | No fee; accountant setup ₺3,000–10,000 | 1–5 business days |
| Trade or craftsmen registry and chamber membershipThe municipality asks for the chamber certificate in the licence file. Minimum capital: Ltd. ₺50,000; A.Ş. ₺250,000. | Trade Registry or Craftsmen Registry; Chamber of Commerce / trade chamber | Sole trader ₺2,000–6,000; Ltd. ₺25,000–45,000; A.Ş. ₺35,000–65,000 (excl. capital) | 1–5 business days |
| Municipal business opening and operating licenceCafes/patisseries/restaurants are 'sanitary establishments'; licensed bars and live-music venues are 'public rest and entertainment venues'. A residential title deed needs unanimous co-owner consent (Condominium Law art. 24). | District municipality licensing directorate | ₺5,000–40,000 (by m² and municipality) | Food venue: same day–2 weeks; licensed/entertainment venue: 3–8 weeks |
| Condominium owners' consent (if the unit is registered as residential)The most common reason projects fail after signing a lease: check the title deed before signing. Chimney and ventilation ducts through common areas need consent even for shop units. | Building owners' assembly (notarised decision) | Notary ₺1,500–5,000 | 1–6 weeks |
| Food business registration certificateMust be obtained before the first sale. Then hygiene prerequisites, traceability, allergen declaration and staff hygiene training obligations apply. | Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, provincial directorate | Free | 1–4 weeks (statutory 30 days) |
| Hygiene training certificate (every food handler)8-hour course, valid for life, verifiable on e-Devlet. Also a pre-employment health report under the OHS law. | Ministry of Education public education centres / approved e-learning | ₺0–1,500 per person | 1–7 days |
| workplace registration and employee entriesEmployee entry at least one day before starting. Wages via bank from 5+ employees. Informal employment cancels all incentives. | Institution (e-Bildirge) | No fee; employer cost ≈1.3x gross wage | Same day (electronic) |
| Occupational health and safety: risk assessment, emergency plan, OHS providerRestaurants (NACE 56.10) and bakery production are 'hazardous': an OHS specialist and workplace doctor are mandatory. Cafes are 'low hazard'. | Ministry of Labour; OHS service provider | Provider ₺1,500–5,000/month; risk assessment ₺3,000–8,000 | 1–2 weeks before opening |
| Fire department report / fire safety complianceExtinguishers, emergency exits, hood and grease-duct cleaning contract, chimney, gas leak detector and solenoid valve are inspected. | Metropolitan / municipal fire department | Report ₺1,000–5,000; equipment ₺10,000–60,000 | 1–3 weeks |
| Music licence from collecting societiesConsumer streaming subscriptions are not commercial licences. Live music needs a separate municipal permit and noise rules apply. | Collecting societies | ₺5,000–40,000/year | 1–2 weeks |
| New-generation fiscal and e-invoice/e-archiveA receipt/invoice is mandatory for every sale, including platform orders. e-Invoice is mandatory at ₺3m ; ₺500k for internet sales. | Administration | Fiscal ₺8,000–25,000 per device; integrator ₺3,000–15,000/year | 1–2 weeks |
| Pavement occupation permit and signage taxUnauthorised tables are removed by municipal police. | District municipality | Occupation ₺500–3,000 per m²/year; signage ₺1,000–10,000/year | Annual declaration (January) |
| Price display, service charge and allergen informationPrices must include and be visible before ordering; a service charge must be announced on the menu; 14 allergens on the menu or on request. | Ministry of Trade; Ministry of Agriculture | 0 | Before opening |
| Business insurance (fire, third-party, employer liability)Compulsory earthquake cover protects the building, not tenant contents. Third-party liability is recommended for customer injury or food-poisoning claims. | Insurers (landlord or franchisor may require) | ₺15,000–80,000/year | Before opening |
Assumptions and sources
Industry averages are estimates dated 2026-09; they are refreshed quarterly because of inflation.
| Assumption | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Concept | Specialty coffee | User |
| Province | İstanbul | User |
| District | Kadıköy Moda | User |
| District tier | Istanbul, secondary | User |
| Location type | Street | User |
| Tourism dependency | Low | Derived |
| Opening month | March 2027 | User |
| Lease term | 5 yr | Industry average |
| Franchise | No | User |
| Franchise entry fee | ₺0 | Industry average |
| Royalty (% of net sales) | 0% | Industry average |
| Franchise marketing fund | 0% | Industry average |
| Serves alcohol | No | User |
| Alcohol share of sales | 0% | Industry average |
| Legal form | Sole proprietorship | User |
| Indoor area | 40 m² | User |
| Indoor seats | 12 seats | User |
| Outdoor seats | 4 seats | User |
| Months outdoor seating is usable | 6 mo | Derived |
| Operating days per month | 30 days | User |
| Operating hours per day | 11 h | User |
| Condition of the space | Partially fitted | User |
| Fit-out cost per m² | ₺24,053 / m² | Industry average |
| Kitchen / bar equipment | ₺985,982 | Industry average |
| Second-hand equipment share | 70% | User |
| Furniture per seat | ₺22,271 / seat | Industry average |
| POS and IT package | ₺133,626 | Industry average |
| Signage and branding | ₺200,440 | Industry average |
| Design fee (% of fit-out) | 6% | Industry average |
| Licensing and permits | ₺167,033 | Industry average |
| Key money / takeover fee | ₺0 | Industry average |
| Deposit (months of rent) | 3 mo | Industry average |
| Pre-opening marketing | ₺222,711 | Industry average |
| Pre-opening training | 3 wk | Derived |
| Fit-out duration | 2 mo | Derived |
| Rent-free months | 1 mo | Industry average |
| Opening inventory (months) | 1 mo | Industry average |
| Contingency | 10% | Industry average |
| Working capital (months) | 4 mo | Industry average |
| Average ticket (incl. VAT) | ₺240 | User |
| Seat turns per day | 5.5× | Derived |
| Counter orders per hour | 20 | Industry average |
| Mature occupancy | 53.8% | Industry average |
| Ramp-up profile | Slow | Derived |
| Annual real growth | 0% | Industry average |
| Takeaway share | 50.2% | Derived |
| Delivery share | 0% | Derived |
| Delivery commission / courier cost | 30% | Industry average |
| Platform ads | 5% | Industry average |
| Delivery ticket vs dine-in | 0.9× | Derived |
| Beverage share of sales | 80% | Industry average |
| Ticket the cost ratio is anchored to | ₺240 | Derived |
| Food cost % | 28% | Industry average |
| Beverage cost % | 24% | Derived |
| Seasonality pattern | City centre | Derived |
| Seasonality amplitude | 1× | Industry average |
| Ramadan effect | Yes | Industry average |
| Off-season operating mode | Open | Derived |
| Off-season months | — | Derived |
| Roster | 1 Barista | User |
| Gross minimum wage | ₺33,030 | Industry average |
| Employer cost factor | 1.33× | Industry average |
| Mid-year wage step | 0% | Industry average |
| Founder salary (monthly) | ₺55,171 | Derived |
| Founder works in the venue | Yes | User |
| Founding partners | 1 | User |
| Partners working in the venue | 1 | Derived |
| Monthly rent | ₺55,000 | User |
| Rent escalation (per year) | 24% / 18% / 14% | Industry average |
| Landlord is an individual (withholding) | Yes | User |
| Common charges per m² | ₺0 / m² | Derived |
| Utilities per m² | ₺356 / m² | Industry average |
| Marketing (% of sales) | 3% | User |
| Accounting and legal (monthly) | ₺13,363 | Industry average |
| Software subscriptions (monthly) | ₺7,238 | Industry average |
| Maintenance (% of sales) | 1% | Industry average |
| Packaging (% of off-premise sales) | 4% | Industry average |
| Card payment share | 85% | Industry average |
| Card commission | 2.5% | Industry average |
| Other fixed costs (monthly) | ₺27,839 | Industry average |
| Corporate / income tax | 25% | Industry average |
| VAT (food service) | 10% | Industry average |
| VAT (alcohol) | 20% | Industry average |
| Blended input VAT on purchases | 6% | Industry average |
| Input VAT on capex | 20% | Industry average |
| Input VAT on opex | 20% | Industry average |
| Inflation (year 1 / 2 / 3) | 24% / 18% / 14% | Industry average |
| Menu repricing interval | 3 mo | Industry average |
| Discount rate (nominal) | 40% | Industry average |
| Reference rate (USD) | 47.5× | Industry average |
| Reference rate (EUR) | 55.5× | Industry average |
| Assumed annual lira depreciation | 15% | Industry average |
| Equity | ₺1,200,000 | User |
| Bank loan | ₺0 | Derived |
| Loan interest (annual) | 45% | Industry average |
| Loan term | 36 mo | Industry average |
| Grace period | 0 mo | Industry average |
| Family / friends funding | ₺0 | Derived |
| KOSGEB support | ₺0 | Derived |
| Investor planned | No | Derived |
| Terminal value method | Book value | Industry average |
| Terminal EBITDA multiple | 3× | Industry average |
| Replacement capex (monthly, % of sales) | 0.5% | Industry average |
Generated: 05/09/2026, 09:00:00 · Engine v1.10.0 · Benchmark version 2026-09
Glossary: terms in this report
Plain-language versions of the terms used in the report and deck. When an investor or banker asks about one, answer from here.
- Revenue (net sales)
- What is left of everything that goes through the till once VAT is taken out. Every ratio in this report is measured against this net figure.
- EBITDA
- Sales minus ingredients, payroll, rent and other running costs, before loan interest, tax and depreciation: what the venue earns on its own.
- COGS (cost of goods sold)
- What the ingredients inside what you sell cost you. As a share of sales it is one of the most-watched numbers: 40 ₺ of ingredients in a 150 ₺ coffee = 27%.
- Gross profit
- Sales minus the cost of ingredients. Payroll, rent and other costs have not been taken out yet.
- Payroll (gross + social security)
- The gross wage paid to staff plus what the employer pays on top: social security and unemployment contributions, meals, transport and severance accrual. FIZIBI costs a roster at 1.33× the gross wage.
- Rent + service charge
- Monthly rent, the service charge on shared areas and withholding tax where it applies. In F&B you want this under 10% of sales.
- Other operating costs
- Everything outside ingredients, payroll and rent: energy, water, maintenance, cleaning, consumables, card fees, marketing, accounting.
- Profit before tax
- The profit left once everything but tax is deducted; corporation tax is calculated on this figure.
- Net profit
- What is left after every cost, depreciation, loan interest and tax. The figure the owners actually earn.
- Prime cost
- Ingredients plus payroll as a share of sales. The single most-watched F&B number; above 65% is a danger sign.
- Contribution margin
- What one sale leaves behind once the costs tied to that sale — ingredients, commission, packaging — are paid, to cover rent and wages.
- Average ticket
- What one customer spends on average. Multiplied by customers per day it gives daily sales.
- Break-even
- The point where you neither win nor lose: how many customers a day (or how much revenue a month) covers all costs.
- Break-even safety margin
- How far the planned customer count sits above break-even. 20% means you still don't lose money if customers drop by a fifth.
- Cash trough
- The lowest point the cash balance reaches over 36 months. Negative means you must find money that month; positive means the plan funds itself.
- Month cash runs out
- The month the till hits zero if no more money goes in. Blank means the cash never runs out.
- Free cash flow
- The difference between cash in and cash out in a month, loan and investment payments included. Not profit — the cash actually left in hand.
- Net operating cash
- The cash the business generates from trading day to day, before investment spending and loan principal.
- Payback
- Months until the money you put in has come back to the till. Healthy small venues: 18-36 months.
- IRR (internal rate of return)
- The investment's yearly percentage return, read like a deposit rate. 'Nominal' includes inflation, 'real' strips it out. The hurdle (40%) is the minimum expected for an investment of this risk in Turkey. It is computed over the ten years of cash flow the model runs.
- NPV (net present value)
- The ten years the model runs, discounted to today's money at 40%, minus the investment. Positive means the venture beats the hurdle.
- DSCR (debt service coverage ratio)
- Yearly earnings divided by yearly loan installments. Banks want at least 1.3: 130 ₺ earned for every 100 ₺ of installments.
- Investor multiple (MOIC)
- What the investor gets back over ten years divided by what they put in. 2x means the money doubled.
- Cash-on-cash return
- A year's cash return divided by the money you put in. 50% means you took back half your investment that year.
- Nominal / real
- A nominal figure includes inflation; a real one strips it out. A 66% nominal return with 30% inflation is roughly 28% in real terms.
- Discount rate
- The yearly rate used to turn future money into today's value; it includes inflation and risk. FIZIBI uses 40% nominal.
- Terminal value
- What the business still holds at the end of year ten, where the model stops: the deposit and cash reserve that come back, any recoverable VAT credit, less the loan still outstanding. You can add book value, or a sale price at an EBITDA multiple, on top.
- Dividend yield
- The profit paid out to shareholders as a share of what they put in. This is the part that leaves the company as cash; a 15% withholding comes off on distribution, and the report's figure is after it.
- Post-money / pre-money valuation
- If an investor pays 2.5m ₺ for 30%, the whole company is valued at 8.33m ₺ (post-money); minus the investment that is pre-money (5.83m ₺).
- Equity
- The founders' and partners' own money in the business. Unlike a loan it is never repaid — it buys a share of the company.
- Working capital
- The cash reserve that pays rent, wages and bills after opening until sales settle; usually 3-6 months of fixed costs.
- Contingency
- A cushion on the fit-out and equipment budget; something always costs more than planned. The model adds 10% by default, and you can raise it.
- Rent deposit
- Usually two to three months' rent left with the landlord as security. You get it back on leaving, but it ties up cash at opening.
- Key money / takeover fee
- A lump sum paid to the outgoing tenant or the landlord to take over the premises, on top of rent. You do not get it back.
- Fit-out
- All the building work that turns an empty unit into a working venue: floors, walls, plumbing, electrics, ventilation. The biggest budget line and the one that slips most.
- MEP (mechanical, electrical, plumbing)
- Ventilation, extraction, water, drainage and the electrical board. In a cafe this approaches a third of the fit-out budget, and it is the most expensive thing to add later.
- Fiscal cash register / kitchen display
- ÖKC is the legally required fiscal cash register; KDS is the screen that puts orders in front of the kitchen. Both connect to the POS.
- Franchise fee and royalty
- The lump sum paid up front to trade under a brand, and the regular cut of sales (royalty) paid afterwards.
- Depreciation
- Spreading the cost of fit-out and equipment over the years it is used instead of expensing it at once. Not a cash outflow.
- Withholding tax (rent)
- 20% paid to the state on top of net rent when the landlord is a private person. A net rent of 100,000 ₺ costs you 125,000 ₺.
- VAT (carried forward / recoverable)
- VAT is 10% on food-service sales and 20% on alcohol. VAT paid on fit-out and equipment is offset against the VAT you collect on sales; in the first months you hold a VAT credit that melts over time.
- BSMV (banking transaction tax)
- A 5% tax on the interest of a commercial loan; KKDF is not charged on commercial credit. Multiply the bank's quoted rate by 1.05: 45% becomes 47.25%.
- REVPASH
- Revenue per available seat hour: how hard each seat works.
- Occupancy
- How full the seats are on average through the day. 60% occupancy times seat turns gives customers per day.
- Seat turns
- How many different customers one seat would take in a day if it were never empty: 5-6 in a coffee shop, 2-3 in a restaurant. Multiplied by occupancy to get the actual count.
- Full-time equivalent (FTE)
- Two part-timers count as one full-timer. Rosters are counted this way.
- Mature (year / occupancy)
- The settled state once the opening ramp is over, usually year 2. Figures marked 'mature' describe this period.
- Opening ramp
- The months after opening while customer numbers climb to their settled level. The first year looks weak because of it.
- Card fee
- The bank's cut on every card sale. The model uses 2.5%, and assumes 85% of non-delivery sales are paid by card. Cash sales carry none.
- Delivery commission
- The cut delivery platforms take on every order: 22-33% by platform, and the model uses a blended 30%. Packaging and in-app advertising (about 5% of delivery sales) come on top.
- Sensitivity (tornado) analysis
- Bars showing how much the result moves when each input is nudged 10% on its own; the longest bar is the assumption to watch.
- Base / pessimistic / optimistic / stress case
- The same plan run on different assumptions: base is what you expect, pessimistic is sales coming in low, and stress adds an inflation and cost shock on top.
- Industry benchmark
- The average for comparable venues in the same concept and area. A compass to compare your plan against, not a rule.
- Feasibility score
- A weighted average of payback, return, safety margin, rent ratio, prime cost, funding and risk, out of 100. It does not make the decision — it tells you where to look.
- KGF guarantee
- A state guarantee fund that stands surety for the bank so new businesses without collateral can borrow.
- KOSGEB entrepreneur support
- Grants for new businesses (setup and performance support) and an interest-free equipment loan; applied for after the company exists, approval takes 3-6 months.
