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Moda Kahve Evi
Feasibility Report and Investor Presentation
Specialty coffee shop · Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul · 32+8 seats · 85 m² · 5 September 2026
Elif Demir
Executive summary
A 85 m², 32-seat specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul needs a total investment of ₺11.5m: ₺3.98m in fit-out, equipment and furniture and ₺3.62m as a working-capital reserve (4 months of fixed costs).
Break-even needs 160 customers a day, a safety margin of 26%. Pessimistic payback (ticket −10%, occupancy −15%, slow ramp) is not reached within 120 months; optimistic 18 months.
- • The amount asked from investors is below the model's need; the difference stays unfunded.
Speaker note
Executive assessment
The operation produces the return (a 2.6-year payback and a 54% IRR); the plan does not close on the funding side: ₺3.77m of the ₺11.5m needed (33%) is still unraised. The cash tables below assume that money is in place; what needs fixing is the funding, not the assumptions.
NORMAL — The project generates ₺20.9m of revenue at a 9.5% EBITDA margin in year 1, reaching an average of ₺53.0m and 16.9% over 10 years. The revenue assumption, the cost of goods ratio, other operating costs, the rent burden, the EBITDA margin, operating cash generation, the payback period and the return (IRR) look positive, while the payroll ratio needs to be watched closely. On a 54% IRR and a 2.6-year payback, the investment is workable but open to improvement.
Speaker note
Concept
Moda Kahve Evi is planned as a non-alcoholic specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul.
Where that difference shows up in the plan: payroll runs 12% above reference, i.e. a heavier service roster. An investor or a bank will test it against competitor prices; the competitor list in chapter 3 is the evidence for it.
Capacity is 32 indoor + 8 outdoor seats, 12 hours a day, 30 days a month. Theoretical seat turns 6.0/day; mature occupancy 63% (FIZIBI assumption).
Speaker note
Location and market
Monthly rent is ₺165k (property found, lease not signed; private landlord, with 20% withholding the cost to the business is ₺206k); 1,941 ₺ per m², 46% below the district benchmark.
Speaker note
Menu and unit economics
Speaker note
Capacity and revenue model
Investment budget
- Working capital reserve₺3.62m32%
- Fit-out and construction (incl. MEP, ventilation)₺2.48m22%
- Input VAT on CAPEX (recoverable)₺866k8%
- Kitchen / bar equipment₺807k7%
- Furniture and decor₺559k5%
- Key money / takeover fee₺500k4%
- Rent deposit₺495k4%
- Pre-opening payroll and training₺430k4%
- Contingency₺398k3%
- Opening inventory₺234k2%
- Launch marketing₺223k2%
- Rent during fit-out₺206k2%
- Signage, branding, menus₺200k2%
- Licences, permits and incorporation₺167k1%
- Architect and project fees₺149k1%
- POS, cash register, KDS and IT₺134k1%
Speaker note
Operating costs and team
- Cost of goods sold₺627k · 24%
- Labor (gross + social security)₺778k · 30%
- Rent + charges₺256k · 10%
- Platform commissions₺88,787 · 3%
- Utilities₺43,745 · 2%
- Marketing₺76,872 · 3%
- Other operating costs₺190k · 7%
Roster at opening-month wages; year-2 monthly payroll after the January minimum-wage steps: ₺778k · 30%
3-year P&L
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales (excl. VAT) | ₺20.9m | ₺30.7m | ₺35.8m |
| Cost of goods sold | −₺5.15m | −₺7.52m | −₺8.71m |
| Gross profit | ₺15.7m75% | ₺23.2m76% | ₺27.1m76% |
| Labor (gross + social security) | −₺7.76m | −₺9.34m | −₺10.9m |
| Rent + charges | −₺2.48m | −₺3.07m | −₺3.62m |
| Platform commissions | −₺724k | −₺1.07m | −₺1.24m |
| Other operating costs | −₺2.78m | −₺3.73m | −₺4.36m |
| EBITDA | ₺1.99m10% | ₺6.03m20% | ₺7.03m20% |
| Depreciation | −₺903k | −₺903k | −₺903k |
| Interest (incl. BSMV) | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 |
| Tax (indicative) | ₺0 | −₺1.12m | −₺1.51m |
| Net profit | ₺1.04m5% | ₺3.94m13% | ₺4.54m13% |
Cash flow and payback
The curve starts where the money goes out: month 0 sits ₺11.5m below zero. The month it crosses the zero line is the month the investment is back; everything above it is cash earned beyond the investment.
Speaker note
Scenarios
| Metric | Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | Stress |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year-2 net revenue | ₺23.5m | ₺30.7m | ₺35.1m | ₺21.0m |
| Year-2 EBITDA | ₺65,723 | ₺6.03m | ₺10.3m | −₺4.72m |
| Year-2 EBITDA margin | 0.3% | 19.6% | 29.4% | -22.5% |
| Payback (months) | — | 31 | 18 | — |
| Additional funding need | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺11.2m |
| Month cash runs out | — | — | — | 11 |
Stress case: pessimistic plus high inflation, a mid-year wage hike and a fit-out overrun (additional).
Speaker note
Sensitivity
- Menu price (±10%)−₺809k₺2.56m
- Occupancy (±10%)−₺294k₺2.18m
- Labor cost (±10%)₺260k₺1.75m
- Food & beverage cost % (±3 pts)₺387k₺1.65m
- Rent (±10%)₺789k₺1.28m
Risks and mitigations
Labor is 30% of revenue. January minimum-wage steps (est. 27%, 21%) and a possible mid-year hike hit margin directly.
Mitigation: Reprice the menu with wage steps; cross-train staff; shift planning.
Costs move monthly while the menu reprices every 3 months; each extra 10 points of inflation costs ~1.2 points of gross margin.
Mitigation: Monthly cost tracking, supplier terms, quarterly repricing, focused menu.
Commercial landlords routinely ask for security beyond the deposit — promissory notes, a bank guarantee letter or a personal surety, often several months' rent; paying key money does not remove it. That amount is not in the investment budget.
Mitigation: Settle the type and amount of security in writing before signing; budget the cost of a bank guarantee letter (2-4% a year) and prefer it to promissory notes.
Break-even needs 160 customers/day; the plan is 216. Safety margin 26%.
Mitigation: Pre-opening footfall count, three competitor menu checks, soft opening, 90-day marketing budget.
The municipal licence, fire report and food registration can take 1-4 months; a residential title deed needs unanimous co-owner consent.
Mitigation: Check title deed type and licence eligibility at the municipality before signing; licence-conditional break clause; two months of extra cash.
Working capital covers 4 months of fixed costs; the cash trough is ₺3.9m (month 2). 10-20% fit-out overruns are normal in Turkey.
Mitigation: Fixed-price contractor, 10-15% contingency, 4-6 months of working capital.
Team and governance
Governance commitment
- Monthly KPI report: covers/day, ticket, COGS %, labor %, cash
- All sales through the fiscal POS; shared bank-account visibility
- Investor approval above a spending threshold
- Regular work with an accountant and a lawyer; licensing and lease timeline shared
Opening timeline and milestones
Speaker note
The ask and use of funds
Speaker note
Exit routes
A single-unit food and beverage business exits one of three ways. The table below sets an EBITDA-multiple exit case beside the book-value terminal the current model already uses.
The formula goes into the partnership agreement: exit-year EBITDA × an agreed multiple × the investor's share. Available from year 3, on 12 months' notice, payable over up to 24 months.
A sale to a food and beverage group or a multi-site brand. Once a second unit is open the buyer is acquiring a repeatable format rather than one venue, and the multiple band moves up.
The founder keeps operating; the brand, recipes and operations manual are licensed out. A royalty on franchisee revenue grows the cash reaching the investor without selling equity.
| Exit case | Enterprise value | Investor's share (35%) |
|---|---|---|
| Book value — the terminal value in the current model | ₺4,513,814 | ₺1,579,835 |
| 3x · year-5 EBITDA | ₺26,952,612 | ₺9,433,414 |
| 4x · year-5 EBITDA | ₺35,936,816 | ₺12,577,886 |
Speaker note
Recommendations
- What pulls the score down most is funding: whether the money covers the need (24/100). Fix this first.
- The result moves most with menu price; validate this figure with real observations and quotes.
- Raise the ask to the model's need (₺3.77m) or shrink the budget; opening with a ₺171k shortfall means a cash squeeze in the first months.
Likely investor questions
216 customers a day at maturity, 132 of them dine-in: 35.2 average active seats (32 indoor + 8 outdoor, weighted by the months the terrace is usable) × 6.0 theoretical turns × 63% occupancy (FIZIBI assumption). Break-even needs 160; safety margin 26%.
Year-1 net income becomes −₺809k (base ₺1.04m). The pessimistic case combines it with −15% occupancy and a slow ramp: additional funding need ₺0.
Rent-to-revenue is 10%; 24%/18%/14% increases at lease anniversaries are modelled. Payback stays within 36 months until rent rises by 27%.
Labor is 30% of revenue; January steps of 2027 27%, 2028 21% and an employer-cost factor of 1.33 are in the model. Menu prices are updated every 3 months; a repricing in the wage-step month is essential.
Project payback is 31 months. On the investor's share of distributable cash the 10-year multiple is 5.41x, IRR 34% nominal / 16% real; year-3 dividend yield 38%.
₺10.3m post-money = 1.7x year-2 EBITDA (₺6.03m); single-site F&B businesses in Turkey typically change hands at 2-4x EBITDA. Year-10 terminal value ₺4.51m.
Contingency of ₺398k and 4 months of working capital (₺3.62m) are budgeted. The stress case (fit-out +15%, high inflation, mid-year wage step) shows an additional need of ₺11.2m. Investment per seat is ₺152k (reference ₺189k).
Wage inflation and turnover (likelihood 4/5, impact 3/5). Mitigation: Reprice the menu with wage steps; cross-train staff; shift planning.
Answers are derived from the model's numbers; rehearse them in your own words before the meeting.
Executive assessment — line by line
The executive assessment line by line; the four figures on the summary slide come from this table.
| Line | YEAR 1 | 10-YEAR AVERAGE · NOMINAL | Executive comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE | ₺20.9m177 customers a day · ₺361 realised avg. ticket (incl. VAT) · revenue is net of VAT | ₺53.0m / year10-year average | At 216 customers a day and a ₺435 average ticket (in year-2 prices), year 2 net revenue is ₺30.7m. Against the location, 85 m², 32 seats and 63% expected occupancy, the revenue assumption looks realistic (monthly sales per m² are 24% below the industry reference). The 10-year average is nominal: most of the gap over year 1 is the price level, not real growth. |
| COST OF GOODS | ₺5.15m · 24.7% | ₺12.9m · 24.3%10-year average | In year 2 cost of goods is 24.5% of revenue. Against the 25.0% industry reference for comparable specialty coffee concepts this is in line, and over 10 years the ratio holds steady. |
| PAYROLL | ₺7.76m · 37.2%7 people | ₺17.3m · 32.7%10-year average | In year 2 payroll is 30.4% of revenue with 7 people planned. Against the 24%–30% industry band this is high, and over 10 years the ratio improves. |
| OTHER COSTS | ₺3.50m · 16.8% | ₺8.46m · 16.0%10-year average | Other operating costs — energy, maintenance, cleaning, consumables, card and platform commission and marketing — are 15.6% of revenue, which is reasonable for this concept, and over 10 years the ratio holds steady. |
| RENT + SERVICE CHARGE | ₺2.48m · 11.8% | ₺5.35m · 10.1%10-year average | Rent and service charges are 10.0% of revenue, which is advantageous against the revenue the plan expects to generate, and over 10 years the ratio improves. Rent can rise at most 27% before payback exceeds 36 months. |
| EBITDA | ₺1.99m · 9.5% | ₺8.98m · 16.9%10-year average | The EBITDA margin is 19.6% in year 2 (9.5% in year 1, 16.9% on the 10-year average). Its path from the first year to the long-run average shows the operation strengthening; reading the revenue and operating cost assumptions together, the profitability level is realistic and sustainable. |
| NET OPERATING CASH | ₺3.36m | ₺7.24m / year10-year average | The venue generates ₺3.36m of operating cash in year 1 and ₺7.24m a year on average over 10 years. After debt service and replacement capex the horizon generates ₺71.3m in total, 6.2x the ₺11.5m invested. Long-run cash generation is strong for the financial sustainability of the investment. |
| PAYBACK | 2.6 yr31 months | 5.1 yrdiscounted at 40% | The ₺11.5m investment is expected to come back in 2.6 years (31 months), which is reasonable for an investment of this size and the operating cash it generates. |
| IRR | 54%nominal | 33%real · hurdle 40% | The internal rate of return is 54% against a 40% hurdle. Read together with the size of the investment, the payback period and the operating risks, the expected return is strong. |
Speaker note
EUR / USD reference view
| Item | TRY | EUR | USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total investment | ₺11,471,297 | €207k | $242k |
| Fit-out, equipment, furniture | ₺3,982,372 | €72k | $84k |
| Working capital | ₺3,620,576 | €65k | $76k |
| Monthly rent | ₺165,000 | €2,973 | $3,474 |
| Average ticket (VAT incl.) | ₺330 | €6 | $7 |
| Year-1 net revenue | ₺20,890,463 | €376k | $440k |
| Year-2 net revenue | ₺30,748,763 | €554k | $647k |
| Year-2 EBITDA | ₺6,032,147 | €109k | $127k |
| Year-2 net income | ₺3,939,517 | €71k | $83k |
| Investor ask | ₺3,600,000 | €65k | $76k |
| Post-money valuation | ₺10,285,714 | €185k | $217k |
| End of year-10 value (terminal) | ₺4,513,814 | €81k | $95k |
Thank you
Investor ask: ₺3,600,000 · 35%
Moda Kahve Evi · Elif Demir · Contact: add your contact details in section 8
This presentation is a projection, not investment advice. All figures rely on user inputs and dated industry assumptions; actual results may differ. · Prepared with FIZIBI · Feasible with conditions (73/100)