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Arka Sokak Kahve
Feasibility Draft — redesign needed
Specialty coffee shop · Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul · 12+4 seats · 40 m² · 5 September 2026
Ayşe Demir
Blockers
- • Not feasible as designed (16/100)
- • Break-even (65 customers/day) exceeds the plan (57).
- • Rent exceeds 15% of estimated revenue; considered risky in the industry.
- • Equity + loan do not cover the total need; the difference is shown as an unfunded gap; additional equity, debt or an investor is needed.
- • Payback exceeds 36 months.
- What pulls the score down most is the return on the money (against leaving it in the bank) (0/100). Fix this first.
- The money you have covers 25% of the need; ₺3.58m is missing. Options: a smaller or fitted takeover space, a partner, family money or a longer-tenor loan.
- The result moves most with menu price; validate this figure with real observations and quotes.
- Rent-to-revenue is above 15%: without a smaller space, a side street or a rent negotiation this plan will struggle in front of investors.
Executive summary
A 40 m², 12-seat specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul needs a total investment of ₺4.78m: ₺2.06m in fit-out, equipment and furniture and ₺1.04m as a working-capital reserve (4 months of fixed costs).
Break-even needs 65 customers a day, a safety margin of -14%. Pessimistic payback (ticket −10%, occupancy −15%, slow ramp) is not reached within 120 months and ₺3.05m of additional funding is needed; optimistic 58 months.
- • Rent exceeds 15% of estimated revenue; considered risky in the industry.
- • Equity + loan do not cover the total need; the difference is shown as an unfunded gap; additional equity, debt or an investor is needed.
- • Payback exceeds 36 months.
Speaker note
Executive assessment
Reading the first year, the 10-year average operating result and the investment return indicators together, the current assumptions do not generate cash that repays the investment; the project does not look sustainable as designed until the payroll ratio and other operating costs are reworked.
WEAK — The project generates ₺3.45m of revenue at a -30.5% EBITDA margin in year 1, reaching an average of ₺10.1m and -5.0% over 10 years. The revenue assumption and the cost of goods ratio look positive, while the payroll ratio, other operating costs, the rent burden, the EBITDA margin, operating cash generation, the payback period and the return (IRR) need to be watched closely. On a 12% MIRR and a payback beyond 10 years, the investment is in need of reworking.
Speaker note
Concept
Arka Sokak Kahve is planned as a non-alcoholic specialty coffee shop in Kadıköy Moda, İstanbul.
Where that difference shows up in the plan: payroll runs 25% above reference, i.e. a heavier service roster. An investor or a bank will test it against competitor prices; the competitor list in chapter 3 is the evidence for it.
Capacity is 12 indoor + 4 outdoor seats, 11 hours a day, 30 days a month. Theoretical seat turns 5.5/day; mature occupancy 54% (FIZIBI assumption).
Speaker note
Location and market
Monthly rent is ₺55,000 (founder estimate, no property selected; private landlord, with 20% withholding the cost to the business is ₺68,750); 1,375 ₺ per m², 12% below the district benchmark.
Speaker note
Menu and unit economics
Speaker note
Capacity and revenue model
Investment budget
- Working capital reserve₺1.04m22%
- Fit-out and construction (incl. MEP, ventilation)₺962k20%
- Kitchen / bar equipment₺606k13%
- Input VAT on CAPEX (recoverable)₺463k10%
- Furniture and decor₺356k7%
- Launch marketing₺223k5%
- Contingency₺206k4%
- Signage, branding, menus₺200k4%
- Licences, permits and incorporation₺167k3%
- Rent deposit₺165k3%
- POS, cash register, KDS and IT₺134k3%
- Pre-opening payroll and training₺88,4752%
- Rent during fit-out₺68,7501%
- Architect and project fees₺57,7271%
- Opening inventory₺46,6601%
Speaker note
Operating costs and team
- Cost of goods sold₺125k · 25%
- Labor (gross + social security)₺165k · 34%
- Rent + charges₺85,250 · 17%
- Platform commissions₺0 · 0%
- Utilities₺20,586 · 4%
- Marketing₺14,736 · 3%
- Other operating costs₺91,108 · 19%
Roster at opening-month wages; year-2 monthly payroll after the January minimum-wage steps: ₺165k · 34%
3-year P&L
| Line | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net sales (excl. VAT) | ₺3.45m | ₺5.89m | ₺6.87m |
| Cost of goods sold | −₺887k | −₺1.50m | −₺1.74m |
| Gross profit | ₺2.56m74% | ₺4.39m75% | ₺5.13m75% |
| Labor (gross + social security) | −₺1.65m | −₺1.98m | −₺2.30m |
| Rent + charges | −₺825k | −₺1.02m | −₺1.21m |
| Platform commissions | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 |
| Other operating costs | −₺1.14m | −₺1.52m | −₺1.77m |
| EBITDA | −₺1.05m-30% | −₺130k-2% | −₺153k-2% |
| Depreciation | −₺418k | −₺418k | −₺418k |
| Interest (incl. BSMV) | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 |
| Tax (indicative) | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺0 |
| Net profit | −₺1.51m-44% | −₺598k-10% | −₺628k-9% |
Cash flow and payback
The curve starts where the money goes out: month 0 sits ₺4.78m below zero. The month it crosses the zero line is the month the investment is back; everything above it is cash earned beyond the investment.
Speaker note
Scenarios
| Metric | Pessimistic | Base | Optimistic | Stress |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year-2 net revenue | ₺4.51m | ₺5.89m | ₺6.73m | ₺4.02m |
| Year-2 EBITDA | −₺1.33m | −₺130k | ₺775k | −₺2.32m |
| Year-2 EBITDA margin | -29.5% | -2.2% | 11.5% | -57.8% |
| Payback (months) | — | — | 58 | — |
| Additional funding need | ₺3.05m | ₺0 | ₺0 | ₺6.16m |
| Month cash runs out | 10 | — | — | 8 |
Stress case: pessimistic plus high inflation, a mid-year wage hike and a fit-out overrun (additional).
Speaker note
Sensitivity
- Menu price (±10%)−₺1.83m−₺1.19m
- Occupancy (±10%)−₺1.74m−₺1.28m
- Labor cost (±10%)−₺1.67m−₺1.35m
- Food & beverage cost % (±3 pts)−₺1.62m−₺1.40m
- Rent (±10%)−₺1.59m−₺1.43m
Risks and mitigations
The founder is a first-time F&B operator; the learning curve hits cost and quality in the first six months.
Mitigation: Hire an experienced chef or manager before opening; check references; find an advisor.
No place yet; rent is the district average and equals 17% of mature-year sales. A real offer moves this ratio either way.
Mitigation: 5+5 year lease with renewal option, licence-conditional break clause, registered lease annotation; rent in TRY.
Break-even needs 65 customers/day; the plan is 57. Safety margin -14%.
Mitigation: Pre-opening footfall count, three competitor menu checks, soft opening, 90-day marketing budget.
Labor is 34% of revenue. January minimum-wage steps (est. 27%, 21%) and a possible mid-year hike hit margin directly.
Mitigation: Reprice the menu with wage steps; cross-train staff; shift planning.
Costs move monthly while the menu reprices every 3 months; each extra 10 points of inflation costs ~1.2 points of gross margin.
Mitigation: Monthly cost tracking, supplier terms, quarterly repricing, focused menu.
Commercial landlords routinely ask for security beyond the deposit — promissory notes, a bank guarantee letter or a personal surety, often several months' rent; for a new venture it is the norm. That amount is not in the investment budget.
Mitigation: Settle the type and amount of security in writing before signing; budget the cost of a bank guarantee letter (2-4% a year) and prefer it to promissory notes.
Team and governance
Governance commitment
- Monthly KPI report: covers/day, ticket, COGS %, labor %, cash
- All sales through the fiscal POS; shared bank-account visibility
- Investor approval above a spending threshold
- Regular work with an accountant and a lawyer; licensing and lease timeline shared
Opening timeline and milestones
Speaker note
Unfunded gap
Speaker note
Recommendations
- What pulls the score down most is the return on the money (against leaving it in the bank) (0/100). Fix this first.
- The money you have covers 25% of the need; ₺3.58m is missing. Options: a smaller or fitted takeover space, a partner, family money or a longer-tenor loan.
- The result moves most with menu price; validate this figure with real observations and quotes.
- Rent-to-revenue is above 15%: without a smaller space, a side street or a rent negotiation this plan will struggle in front of investors.
Likely investor questions
57 customers a day at maturity, 40 of them dine-in: 13.6 average active seats (12 indoor + 4 outdoor, weighted by the months the terrace is usable) × 5.5 theoretical turns × 54% occupancy (FIZIBI assumption). Break-even needs 65; safety margin -14%.
Year-1 net income becomes −₺1.83m (base −₺1.51m). The pessimistic case combines it with −15% occupancy and a slow ramp: additional funding need ₺3.05m.
Rent-to-revenue is 17%; 24%/18%/14% increases at lease anniversaries are modelled. With no 36-month payback in the base case there is no rent headroom; an escalation cap in the lease is essential.
Labor is 34% of revenue; January steps of 2027 27%, 2028 21% and an employer-cost factor of 1.33 are in the model. Menu prices are updated every 3 months; a repricing in the wage-step month is essential.
Simple payback is 120+ months; discounted 120+ months. Year-2 cash-on-cash 1%.
No equity is offered yet; the plan has a ₺3.58m unfunded gap and does not close as designed. How that amount is filled — partner equity, debt, or a staged raise — is open to discussion.
Contingency of ₺206k and 4 months of working capital (₺1.04m) are budgeted. The stress case (fit-out +15%, high inflation, mid-year wage step) shows an additional need of ₺6.16m. Investment per seat is ₺182k (reference ₺189k).
Founder experience (likelihood 5/5, impact 4/5). Mitigation: Hire an experienced chef or manager before opening; check references; find an advisor.
Answers are derived from the model's numbers; rehearse them in your own words before the meeting.
Executive assessment — line by line
The executive assessment line by line; the four figures on the summary slide come from this table.
| Line | YEAR 1 | 10-YEAR AVERAGE · NOMINAL | Executive comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| REVENUE | ₺3.45m40 customers a day · ₺264 realised avg. ticket (incl. VAT) · revenue is net of VAT | ₺10.1m / year10-year average | At 57 customers a day and a ₺316 average ticket (in year-2 prices), year 2 net revenue is ₺5.89m. Against the location, 40 m², 12 seats and 54% expected occupancy, the revenue assumption looks conservative (monthly sales per m² are 58% below the industry reference). The 10-year average is nominal: most of the gap over year 1 is the price level, not real growth. |
| COST OF GOODS | ₺887k · 25.7% | ₺2.56m · 25.4%10-year average | In year 2 cost of goods is 25.5% of revenue. Against the 25.0% industry reference for comparable specialty coffee concepts this is in line, and over 10 years the ratio holds steady. |
| PAYROLL | ₺1.65m · 47.7%2 people | ₺3.57m · 35.3%10-year average | In year 2 payroll is 33.6% of revenue with 2 people planned. Against the 24%–30% industry band this is high, and over 10 years the ratio improves. |
| OTHER COSTS | ₺1.14m · 33.1% | ₺2.70m · 26.7%10-year average | Other operating costs — energy, maintenance, cleaning, consumables, card and platform commission and marketing — are 25.7% of revenue, which is high for this concept, and over 10 years the ratio improves. Energy, maintenance, marketing and consumables should be reviewed line by line to challenge the fixed cost load. |
| RENT + SERVICE CHARGE | ₺825k · 23.9% | ₺1.78m · 17.6%10-year average | Rent and service charges are 17.4% of revenue, which is high against the revenue the plan expects to generate, and over 10 years the ratio improves. |
| EBITDA | −₺1.05m · -30.5% | −₺506k · -5.0%10-year average | The EBITDA margin is -2.2% in year 2 (-30.5% in year 1, -5.0% on the 10-year average). Its path from the first year to the long-run average shows the operation strengthening; reading the revenue and operating cost assumptions together, the profitability level is insufficient. |
| NET OPERATING CASH | −₺808k | −₺411k / year10-year average | The venue generates −₺808k of operating cash in year 1 and −₺411k a year on average over 10 years. After debt service and replacement capex the horizon generates −₺4.95m in total, 0.0x the ₺4.78m invested. Long-run cash generation is limited for the financial sustainability of the investment. |
| PAYBACK | 10 yr+not repaid within the horizon | 10 yr+discounted at 40% | The ₺4.78m investment does not come back within the 10-year model horizon, which is long for an investment of this size and the operating cash it generates. |
| IRR | —nominal | —real · hurdle 40% | The cash-flow series changes sign more than once, so no single IRR fits it; the modified internal rate of return (MIRR) is 12% against a 40% hurdle. Read together with the size of the investment, the payback period and the operating risks, the expected return is low. |
Speaker note
EUR / USD reference view
| Item | TRY | EUR | USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total investment | ₺4,780,946 | €86k | $101k |
| Fit-out, equipment, furniture | ₺2,058,461 | €37k | $43k |
| Working capital | ₺1,036,517 | €19k | $22k |
| Monthly rent | ₺55,000 | €991 | $1,158 |
| Average ticket (VAT incl.) | ₺240 | €4 | $5 |
| Year-1 net revenue | ₺3,449,508 | €62k | $73k |
| Year-2 net revenue | ₺5,894,449 | €106k | $124k |
| Year-2 EBITDA | −₺129,895 | −€2,340 | −$2,735 |
| Year-2 net income | −₺597,671 | −€11k | −$13k |
| End of year-10 value (terminal) | ₺0 | €0 | $0 |
Thank you
Arka Sokak Kahve · Ayşe Demir · Contact: add your contact details in section 8
This presentation is a projection, not investment advice. All figures rely on user inputs and dated industry assumptions; actual results may differ. · Prepared with FIZIBI · Not feasible as designed (16/100)